Ok, I spent a fair amount of time reviewing my numbers. I found that I came up with .069 and .16 in q3. My revised numbers for q4 are not that different from my original revised numbers. I came up with .11eps and .285cashflow.
I reviewed the company numbers and realized that I hadn't been counting the accrued future tax as part of cashflow but since they are not paying out the taxes, they have to be counted. That boosted cashflow up. However in doing my review, I used 1250boepd average for the qtr.
My reasoning is that they just issued the PR and they said they are currently at 1100 with 100 behind the pipe. That means not yet hooked up on 11/25/05, more than half way thru the qtr. So they might have trouble even averaging 1200 for the qtr. I also lowered my original $ per boe price. They are not getting as much for their ngas in Canada as we do in the US. I lowered my price per boe to C$67 on 115,000boe.
If they can hit .285, they should be at $4+ share price sometime in 2006. The average cashflow to price ratio for Canadian juniors is around 5+. Bobwins
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If the Commodities Boom is Over, I am just a Gold Bug headed for the Windshield of LIFE
