Rival Energy Ltd (fka rgylf)

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

Re Your Projections

Think you have to redo your numbers on Rival. Remember they had a cash flow of 16 cents in latest quarter on average production of 914 BOE per day. They are now at 1200 BOE per day (1100 exit plus 100 in pipe). On straight extrapolation, next quarter's cash flow per share would be = 21 cents (i.e. 1200/914 x 16). But I expect higher average production than 1200, higher selling prices and further operating cost, general and administration and transportation savings. Remember the operating and transportation costs per barrel dropped significantly in the quarter as did the G&A per barrel. I'm going to guess a cash flow per share of 26 cents for the quarter. If you relook at your numbers for the quarter just passed I think you will see that you highballed the production amount but underestimated cost savings, which tended to balance eah other out. Think it would be worthwhile to update your 4th quarter numbers (don't want you selling out prematurely after all your hard work). If I'm right about 26 cents cash flow next quarter, this stock can easily double from it's current price. I may be greedy but I'm holding for $4 a share.