I have the CS report on CLF, FWIW. The summary statement is as follows:
So, Credit Suisse’s main premise is that CLF’s balance sheet is now more leveraged than it was in 2008. Well, duh, that’s a direct consequence of CLF’s acquiring Consolidated Thompson in 2010. However, leverage is double-edged—not simply bad—and taking on debt to buy CT allowed CLF to participate in the global iron-ore market in a much bigger way than they could have without it. Interest rates are low and CLF doesn’t have any debt maturities during the next few years.
The bottom line, IMO, is still the LT outlook for global iron-ore prices. I don’t buy the thesis that they are headed into the toilet; rather, I think the coming increase in iron-ore supply is well known and is already reflected in contract prices to some degree. I concur with BHP’s CEO, Mario Kloppers, who thinks that iron-ore prices will slowly but steadily rise beginning in 2014 from a somewhat lower base (#msg-84866945 and #msg-85905399 [chart at bottom]).
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”
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