TTT--7 Nov 05
Conflicting Indications Make For An Indecisive, Choppy Pattern
On Friday, stock prices finished mixed in indecisive, narrow-range trading on lighter volume. Strong seasonals, reports of past earnings, and merger news have been offsetting a deteriorating longer-term outlook for the economy and stock prices. The market could continue in an indecisive choppy pattern for a while longer. Bond prices have been going down fairly steadily since 8/31/05 and are at their lowest price levels since 3/28/03. This means that interest rates are making new 7-month highs. This trend is bearish for both bonds and stocks. With the Fed apparently much more concerned about accelerating inflation than about the economy, the trend toward rising interest rates seems likely to continue.
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) No buy possible on 7 Nov 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Sell C Fund if SPY is < $121.35. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell I Fund if EFA is < $56.98. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Sell S Fund if $EMW or DWCP is < $527.09. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
G Fund (Money Market) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
Regards,
frenchee
#board-4258 TSP Trend Timing: EFA (I), TLT (F), SPY (C), and VXF (S)