TTT--4 Nov 05
Hawkish Fed Bearish For Stocks And Bonds
On Thursday, the C Fund gapped higher but appears to be reversing again, continuing its choppy pattern. Comments by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan seemed to reinforce the perception that the Fed is much more concerned about accelerating inflation than about stimulating the economy. Bond prices have been going down fairly steadily since 8/31/05 and are at their lowest price levels since 3/30/03. This means that interest rates are making new 7-month highs while the F Fund is making new 7-month lows. This trend is Bearish for both bonds and stocks. As a result, I'm keeping stops tight if this recent short-term trend reverses.
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) No buy possible on 4 Nov 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) Sell C Fund if SPY is < $120.89. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
I Fund (EAFE Index) Sell I Fund if EFA is < $56.82. Current portfolio allocation is 25%.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Sell S Fund if $EMW or DWCP is < $523.51. Current portfolio allocation is 50%.
G Fund (Money Market) Current portfolio allocation is nil.
Regards,
frenchee
#board-4258 TSP Trend Timing: EFA (I), TLT (F), SPY (C), and VXF (S)
