Ocroft,
My apologies. I do remember (after being reminded by your post) that you used the 10-8-5-4-5-8-10 model and that you have previously written that you would sell out if the issue got back to it's original (for your AIM project) price. I think I was focused too much on the 20% profit aspect.
As to your last point about SPY falling from $154 to $74 before there was an uptick sufficient to begin buying, there was a significant Uptrend from March to May '08 and a lesser one in July to Sept '08, which seem, on a chart, to have been enough to end the Buy advice. If they didn't, perhaps the downtrend was severe enough to build up a large "Residual", as Conrad is want to mention, which must be negated to get the $0.00 Buy Advice.
The difference of the closing price of SPY on 2/29/09 to 3/31/09 was about $5.59, when you would have purchased SPY. The difference of the closing price on 3/31/08 to 4/30/08 was $6.29. Why the smaller amount was sufficient to give $0.00 Buy Advice and the larger amount was not, I have no idea.
But your comment about anyone buying SPY at that time having a "field day" is right on the mark. And that is how many who try to "time" the market justify their methods.
Bob
