Hi Bob
"Unfortunately, from my point of view, this is a luxury of "backtesting" -- he knew it was the downturn because of hindsight."
The 2007 downtrend was not known beause of hindsight.
SPY was observed while already in a downtrend move.
I wrote I bought all the shares the shares that I'm likely to sell; and because the price is back at the $10.00 level($153.32) and shares above this level were never sold, I have to liquidate and look around for other buying opportunities.
What I was trying to convey was that in Lichello 10-8-5-4-8-5-10 model, nothing happens above the $10.00 level. This is the investment model I use.
Because I started at the $152.00, I will liquidate at that price or slightly higher. It happened at the $153.32 price.
I also wrote that I don't hold above this level trying to capture a long term move.
I don't care what happens above this level. I am looking around for other discounted buying opportunities.
So, in 2007 early 2008 while looking around for other discounted buying opportunities, I would notice SPY, not in hindsight, had peaked and started another downward move.
In this downtrend mode, SPY again becomes a buying opportunity candidate on which I again can backtest if it continues downward.
Did you know that spy in late 2007 fell from a high of $154.65
to a low $73.93 before an AIM uptrend occured at $79.52? Anyone applying the delayed buying AIM uptrend technique would have had a field day.
Regards
ocroft
AI
