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Re: Adam post# 35761

Wednesday, 08/29/2012 9:05:43 PM

Wednesday, August 29, 2012 9:05:43 PM

Post# of 47129
Adam,


Ocroft doesn't buy SPY at $152.34, he starts the AIM program on SPY at $152.34. His first buy is at $126.66, his second buy is at $114.05, etc.

His statement that he, "didn't pretend to buy, I simply AIM the monthly action and delayed my buys until an AIM upturn occurred" suggests that he has altered the process a little from his original description, but the overall pattern is still the same. The selling pattern is also slightly altered, hinting that he is selling at AIM directed Sell points, but he still sells the entire position at the turn down. In this way, his style seems VERY similar to Steve's LD AIM.

Unfortunately, from my point of view, this is a luxury of "backtesting" -- he knew it was the downturn because of hindsight. In Nov 2007, when SPY turned down and then went most of the way back up, no one could be certain that the Uptrend was over. He would not have known to sell his remaining shares at that time -- it is possible that this sale did empty his holdings and there would have been no more possible sales in the future, even if SPY had continued to climb. This he doesn't make clear.

Hope this helps,

Bob

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