A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[Conrad]

Ocroft,
In addition to what I mentioned previously on the. . . (What is new about your method???). . . method you describe is very similar as a method already known, and was discussed at length, when Don Carlson described it many years ago using his MACRO Filter . . . Buying only after a price reversal a Bottom had occurred and similarly Selling at the top after a price reversal had occurred there:

MACRO: Moving Average Cross-Over

The only difference is that Don applied it after he had committed himself to buying right-away at an acceptable Starting Point with a CER he considered appropriate. The advantage with that is that if the stock that is bought started rising right-away then Don could reap profits right-away on the way to the Top!!!

I know the MACRO-method quite well! Don discussed it with me and I tested it for him before he published it. I also coined the name MACRO for him

So, in that sense I see nothing essentially new in your method. The choice to start buying right away, or not, at Day 1, at an appropriate CER, is a practical one:

a) If the stock is to one's liking(Stock Picking) and moving down already then one better waits with buying till the Bottom(+Hick-up). . .(Read: Cross-Over). . .had occurred;

b) If the stock is obviously rising then jump in right away at the selected CER;

c) If the stock is moving sideways between a Trading Range(TR) then jump in very close to the Bottom of the TR.

I see no essential difference between that and your method. . .the differences are simply slight personal preferences based on market behaviour observations and understanding the “readings”.