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Friday, February 14, 2003 8:02:51 AM
Feb 14, 2003 (AsiaPulse via COMTEX) -- (Full text of statement. Contact details
below.)
STOCKHOLM, Feb. 14 PRNewswire - AsiaNet - Has the last year's downturn for the
wireless industry and delays in 3G fundamentally changed the operator's options
for 3G evolution? In a new report "Operator Options for 3G Evolution" leading
wireless advisor Northstream gives an independent view on the hot topic of
operators' choice between the two rivalling technologies WCDMA and CDMA2000.
According to the Northstream analysis WCDMA will be the dominant 3G technology
in the long term, mainly because of the fact that operators in the dominating
GSM-network already have or will opt for WCDMA.
The report gives Northstream's independent view on the matter, assessing GSM,
CDMA and TDMA operator technology evolution options to WCDMA or CDMA2000.
- We have tried to cast the pride and prejudices aside when analysing this
controversial issue, says Bengt Nordstroem, CEO of Northstream.
-- We have made use of a few key observations, central to our view of the matter
but not always acknowledged by all parties discussing technology evolution. With
these observations in mind, we can more easily distinguish relevant facts from
over-simplistic or invalid arguments, all of which exist in the current
evolution discussion.
-- A technology evolution path decision should be driven by the future
profitability impact that the decision will have: with which technology can the
operator maximize his future revenue. Which path requires least additional
investment, considering the legacy situation?
-- A technology evolution path decision is a long-term decision. Because a
technology generation shift is generally very expensive it cannot be done often,
and therefore it is irrelevant what is gained in the short term if the 5-10 year
profitability impact is negative.
-- Bad services do not mean bad networks technology. The introduction of data
services decouples the service offering from the network technology. This means
that an operator can easily fail to offer compelling services despite having an
excellent underlying network technology.
-- Higher data rates as such are not a main driver for data services uptake. The
services envisaged for mass-market adoption of mobile data are typically not
data rate demanding.
- We conclude that GSM operators generally will choose the WCDMA evolution path,
says Bengt Nordstroem.
According to the report, investment reusability, gradual investments, simpler
service migration, more attractive services (primarily roaming) and a better
long-term terminal market, combine to make this decision rather simple. GSM
operators who face difficulties to find spectrum for a WCDMA deployment, for
example in North America, should rather use EDGE as bridging technology until
spectrum for WCDMA becomes available, than choosing a CDMA2000 evolution.
For CdmaOne operators the generally preferable path is to evolve its network to
CDMA2000 1X (which has similar service-enabling capabilities to GPRS) and then
on to DO and/or DV. Spectrum availability, investment reusability, gradual
investments, simpler service migration and lack of CDMA/WCDMA terminals, combine
to make this a straightforward decision.
For a TDMA operator we view both WCDMA- and CDMA-based evolution paths as
feasible. High economies-of-scale, more attractive services (primarily roaming)
and a more attractive long term terminals market all speak for WCDMA. Against
these factors stand the prospects of simpler spectrum management, gradual
investments enabled by AMPS/CDMA terminals and higher investment reusability,
which speak in favour of CDMA2000. Whichever option is adopted the TDMA
operators will have to make sure they have the solid backing of its suppliers to
provide them with confidence in making this difficult decision.
- An overall conclusion is that GSM/GPRS will continue to dominate the global
market for years to come, says Bengt Nordstroem.
-- WCDMA will be the dominant 3G technology in the long term, considering the
dominance
of existing 3G networks and already made decisions on GSM-to-WCDMA evolution
The full report can be downloaded from www.northstream.se
Meet us in Cannes at the 3GSM World Congress, Hall 2 stand F57 and Hospitality
Suite 301 and 303, or follow the event through live updates at
www.northstream.se.
About Northstream:
Northstream provides strategic technology and business advice to the global
wireless industry. Northstream has assembled a multinational team with some of
the world's best experts and analysts on wireless communication business and
technology.
Northstream's list of clients include several of the world's leading operators
and system suppliers, e.g. Vodafone, AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, SK Telecom, Orange,
Sonera, Telia, Mitsubishi, Ericsson, Nokia, Lucent and Microsoft, as well as
some of the leading investment banks and financial institutions. Northstream is
established in Stockholm (Sweden), Sophia Antipolis (France) and Tokyo (Japan).
SOURCE Northstream
CONTACT: Bengt Nordstroem, CEO,
+46-705-58-47-09
or
Tommy Ljunggren, Public Relations, Manager,
+46-705-91-00-64 or pressnorthstream.se,
both of Northstream
Web Site: http://www.northstream.se
(C) 2003 Asia Pulse Pte Ltd
-0-
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: Telecommunications
(Wall Street)
Daniel Nieves
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