Hi Alea
You point to the complexity of the landscape as a reason for Wave having an exceedingly difficult time becoming established as the defacto solution for the NFC payment/service model. Yet, I would argue that the landscape is not so complex. All of the solutions are based upon encryption, right? What does Wave really do? It has the only method for differing encrypted outputs to be used interoperably.
That is the "key" to understanding this particular situation. In that way, the landscape isnt complex at all, is it? The complexity comes from several providers who want to use encryption to offer services to their customers. This makes Wave more useful, not less. Wave will be needed because those very providers demand their own chips and outputs, while consumers will need interoperability to operate within several different systems. This is why ARM included Wave in their design of Trustzone.
I think sometimes folks here forget that what lies at the foundation of every Wave product is the "smoothing" algorythmn that makes encrypted outputs readable by other encryption devices.