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Re: aleajactaest post# 214537

Saturday, 09/17/2011 12:25:11 AM

Saturday, September 17, 2011 12:25:11 AM

Post# of 249368
Perhaps, but as TPMs in particular are PC-centric, it seems that MSFT is in a unique position to capitalize on this market just as Wave seems to be. In fact, it seems that the lack of strong competition with Wave is probably due in part to the perceived *lack* of a market to date. I mean, who really *pays* for security, right? Especially when a "secure" system means you're using bit locker.

The potential TAM for Wave is mind boggling quite frankly. I mean so they land one auto company and bring in $10M?! If central management of networked devices becomes the requirement for "good enough" security, then there are billions upon billions of dollars to be made. How about all the auto makers? How about the auto industry? How about all manufacturers? What about all the support industries for manufactures. On and on. And with that comes a lot of competition. As they say about having to paying taxes, it's a good problem to have.

My concern is that someone like MSFT sees this too and not only will they facilitate the broad use of TPMs, but they will also capitalize on it and commoditize it. Just like with Intel, their basic strategy has been to subsume any good feature/capabiltiy to improve their own products' value and lower end user cost. The latter being not all together altruistic. Bottom line, if something is valuable, it will get absorbed by Wintel.

Wave has an impressive record of nearly uninterrupted revenue growth now for almost 28 quarters. But frankly the growth rate has been a yawner as the market's reaction shows. With all due respect, I would love to believe that MSFT doesn't have the aspiration to make a ton of money or play that role. But I would like to better understand a more material competitive advantage that Wave has.

Some things that come to mind are obviously perceived leadership in this space by those who might be familiar with the space, robust multi language support and interoperability. And of course years of experience. This shouldn't be underestimated. But they haven't been able to enable the hockey stick on their own, so when it happens will Wave really be the benefactor?

Again, sorry to drone on and sound so pessimistic- thanks for your comments and also to everyone who continues to post insightful information!
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