Tuesday, January 07, 2003 11:33:05 PM
Re :I realize this is only guidance based on TA and decisions should be based on an individuals circumstances
Words to live by, you still have to blend a lot of common sense into the mix.
Anyway yes anybody including the analysts can see an overbought or oversold condition. There are many many measured indictors for this. The key is how overbought or oversold and the timing of the break out/down. Buying too early is as common as selling too late.
If one were to look at the NAS a person could simply read the $BPCOMPQ, the various charting indicators, look at the RSI, MACD and moneyflow, vol. scales, price to vol. and determine if it's overbought or sold. The key into reading these and many other indictors is to determine length by time. This is something that is learned. I agree it's very hard to nail the top or bottom exactly, but after a period of time learning this, and I mean seriously taking the time to learn you can usually get within a short time of either end. News can catch a person off guard. Nec release back in Jan 2002 caught me as the stock was falling, and would have fallen a little more for that matter if not for that release. By the same token a person can buy in quick enough to pick up a good chuck of the gains knowing that within a falling market the spike will soon be short lived and result in a quick correction. Which it did. If Nec release would have happened during a strong upswing the price could have doubled. It didn't. That would have been nice.
That was a different market
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