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Re: Danny Detail post# 1278

Tuesday, 01/07/2003 10:28:57 PM

Tuesday, January 07, 2003 10:28:57 PM

Post# of 432882
OT Danny, well I had to respond and partially agree. There are no experts that can day in day out predict short-term market movement. No way, not day in day out. However there are trends that can be followed, weakness and strength within the market that can be realized and measured. The market can not shoot to 9500 tomorrow nor can it go to 7500. There is a reason for that. It will likely go up if under sold. And likely go down when over bought. It's only overbought or over sold for short periods at a time so meaningful gains are only for short periods at a time. It's important to look at the markets overall before you start buying, selling a certain stock. This may seem obvious to everyone but most mom and pop sellers and buyers usually sell or buy at, well less than the best of times. They get caught in the greed and fear and miss the dynamics of the market and the timing factors built into it. Not everyday is a good day to trade. Not every week or month for that matter. BTW this is not just for traders but anybody looking to take a position.

All that being said, the obvious is buy an over sold stock during a oversold market for maximum gains, and sell a over bought one during a overbought market. Unfortunately you will not always get the alignment your looking for. When you do you take a lot of guesswork out of the market.

Right now the market is building shallow sideways corrections with impulse buying/selling from the good /bad news that is build into the market and waiting on bigger news that will drive it. i.e. war, recovery, growth, strong overall earnings, slow growth, no growth, inflation, deflation etc.

A little easier with IDCC. No real down side from the company, trial coming up, everyone is waiting for the trial or settlement, with no real expectations until after it's resolved. Sure Nok could settle or a new license could be signed but not expected. No the focus is on the trial. Afterwards is when it will become interesting.

Anyway JMHO


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