The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[OakesCS]

i don't see long-haul trucks moving to NG anytime soon, c.f.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704740604576301550341227910.html

in inflation/devalued dollar terms, the price of oil now is close to what it was in 1980 (which is another reason why obama is compared to carter)
http://www.eia.gov/steo/fsheets/index.cfm
oil prices declined after 1981 and prices might decline again, although i would be very surprised if the same magnitude was achieved (i'd also be part of the U3 index)

As long as the US produces ~30% of the oil we consume, then we will be dependent on other countries. NG can not replace ~70% of our oil consumption. However, i suspect NG will eventually move up in price rather than oil moving down and part of the reason will be more utilization in vehicles.

as for the 'discovery after discovery'. The oil discoveries in the gulf have a bit of a problem at the moment (see above). As for NG: yeah, we have lots at the moment which is why the price is so low.

As for 'green energy'. Most 'green' concerns are well-intentioned but self-defeating. Case in point being the nice new natural gas fueled taxis scooting about Cambridge & Boston (supplemented to the tune of $8k/car thanks to the marvelous Recovery & Reinvestment Act). These cars and their non-subsidized gasoline brethren can only transport passengers 1-way if they travel outside of their respective cities. If a cab takes a passenger from a cambridge hotel to Logan airport it must return empty. Cab takes passenger from airport to city outside Boston, it must return to Boston empty. Van services like the "Super Shuttle" are not allowed to operate here. Unions and sanctioned monopolies continue to trump 'green' (but hey, it's not all bad. i just received a nice notice from the city informing me of the availability of my 'free' "CitySmart" package which will be delivered by "Metro Pedal Power". Hey, the package will "save money" and "reduce [my] carbon foot-print". And some folks don't think there are things that can be cut from govmint spending.)