Hello William! A lot of posts to get through today, but I always read the posts of those that I "follow", and noticed my name in this post of yours.
Yes, I am as cynical as you (and I've been accused of being too cynical - ha!) I remained on the board's sidelines after JMW screwed up the last confirmation opinion, always reading what you, Don, Catz, and many other fine posters here write, trying to run it through my "cynic's filter". Two recent developments that made it through thaty filter were the numerous repeated depo postponements and missed objection deadlines. Those were a tell SG was in the driver's seat.
As I've stated over the past few days, what has me most excited is Nate Thoma's allusions to CDS improprieties of some insiders. This is a stealth bomber, flying low and quiet, unrecognized and underappreciated, ready to blow this thing even more wide open. And I think it will be a major reason JPM will be compelled to play ball and throw money equity's way (in return for releases, of course.) The CDS market is shadowy and unregulated - the only way to know what positions were taken and when would be if a court ordered the production of those docs. That is what Thoma is threatening.
(Imagine the potential blowback of any news that shows JPM profited to the tune of tens of billion of dollars by betting against WAMU with credit default swaps after they acquired info on the bank during their due diligence between March and September 2008! Not sure Obama's favorite banker can withstand that one...)
I spoke with my attorney colleague today... and while he and I are ecstatic that it now appears equity will not be wiped out, it's just too soon to really comment, as the full details of the settlement are not yet known. As we move forward and get more info, I'll continue to share his thoughts.
(As you'll recall from my posts from a few days ago, my friend's experience negotiating intellectual property cases led him to believe that SG's missed deadline was not due to incompetence, but rather was a sign that a term sheet of a settlement was in place. Today, my friend's inclinations were proven right, happily.)
GLTY.
-Jack
