I think it's pretty simple. IDCC has drawn a line in the sand at the cheap rates they gave to companies in the past for 3G. Years ago, IDCC started out getting fairly good rates from some manufacturers (mostly the Japanese such as Sharp, NEC, Panasonic, etc.). Some of those companies are paying well over 1% (maybe 1.5% or more). But when Nokia played hardball, a lot of others followed suit and wouldn't pay at all. IDCC made a conscious decision to sign some of these companies at rates of around .3% (HTC, RIM, etc.). Apple got a special deal that we still don't have a clue about all the hidden financial terms, but I think there are a lot of hidden benefits for IDCC in that contract.
Now, on the eve of the CAFC decision in the Nokia case....IDCC isn't giving away their IP any more. LG is still trying to negotiate a deal similar to what they had in the past, but IDCC isn't interested. IDCC has drawn a line in the sand and anyone who wants a license is going to have to pay the rate they want, which I think is >1%. LG doesn't want to pay that much while there is still a chance that IDCC might lose the CAFC ruling. But, it is my belief that IDCC is telling any pending potential licensees that the rates on the table now will go up after they win the CAFC ruling.
One of these days the current IDCC licenses expire (for example the paid up Samsung license expires at the end of 2012)...and IMHO, as those licenses expire the new 3G rate will be 1% (or slightly more) and the LTE rate will be 1.5% or so. IDCC may choose to offer a combo rate that gives them both for somewhat less than 2.5%. At some point they will have 100% of the 3G and the 4G/LTE market licensed...and the people who haven't been paying will pay dearly for past infringement. The companiesthat signed ct rate deals (like HTC, APPLe and RIM) were smart because they now have no past infringement liabilities.
Everything changes when the CAFC rules. Nokia will have to make a decision at that point in time whether they want to keep trying to delay the inevitible by filing an en banc appeal at the CAFC (no chance of being accepted IMHO) and then a writ of certiorari to the Supreme Court (no chance in hell of being accepted). In the meantime....Nokia's stock will be in freefall while market understands that until Nokia can get a competitive smartphone available and successfull in the US...the rest of the world will just keep on buying Android phones from HTC, LG, & Samsung or Apple I-Phones or RIM Blackberries.
If Nokia gets to the point where the ITC has to issue the C&D order and the LEO...it is game over. At that point Nokia has lost all their negotiating leverage.
JMHO,
NJ
AI
