The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (03/09/11) TY George
* Wednesday, March 9, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: back to neutral.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Above is an intermediate term view of the SPY. When there has been a wide separation of the blue and red line a large reversal in the market occurred. When both the red and blue lines start to trend from down to up then the market is expected to reverse. Right now both the red and blue lines have turned sideways pushing the potential bearish signal down the road. The next chart of the following page shows a potential bullish signal developing near term that could see the rally extend another month or so once the current consolidation phase is complete. The SPY/TRIN ratio in the bottom window, turns up would add to the bullish short term picture.
Above is a shorter term picture. The TRIN/TICK ratio above is nearing the level where previous bottoms have formed in the past view years. The TRIN/TICK ratio hasn’t touched the bullish level yet which is above .010 but is very close in doing so and if hit would imply another rally phase in the market will begin that could last a month or more. Normally a bullish signal will be triggered by this indicator when it hits above .010 and when it turns down will trigger the bullish signal. We have drawn red arrows to previous bullish signals by this indicator.
Above is the Cumulative Net Cash Flow for the Rydex Precious Metal fund. Over the last two years the uptrend in gold stocks continued when Cumulative Net Cash Flow was 150 and below. The current reading is 129.01 and therefore in general the current rally in gold stocks should continue. When the Cumulative Net Cash reaches above 225 will be a clue to start looking for the next high. Trend remains up. GDXJ should outperform GDX on the rally phases. Long MNEAF 2.80 on 3/3/11. Long on US Silver (ussif) at .62 on 2/17/11. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Long DNN on 12/17/10 at 3.20. Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10. Long CXZ at 1.52 on 12/14/10. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10. Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We long KGC on average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
* Wednesday, March 9, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: back to neutral.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Above is an intermediate term view of the SPY. When there has been a wide separation of the blue and red line a large reversal in the market occurred. When both the red and blue lines start to trend from down to up then the market is expected to reverse. Right now both the red and blue lines have turned sideways pushing the potential bearish signal down the road. The next chart of the following page shows a potential bullish signal developing near term that could see the rally extend another month or so once the current consolidation phase is complete. The SPY/TRIN ratio in the bottom window, turns up would add to the bullish short term picture.
Above is a shorter term picture. The TRIN/TICK ratio above is nearing the level where previous bottoms have formed in the past view years. The TRIN/TICK ratio hasn’t touched the bullish level yet which is above .010 but is very close in doing so and if hit would imply another rally phase in the market will begin that could last a month or more. Normally a bullish signal will be triggered by this indicator when it hits above .010 and when it turns down will trigger the bullish signal. We have drawn red arrows to previous bullish signals by this indicator.
Above is the Cumulative Net Cash Flow for the Rydex Precious Metal fund. Over the last two years the uptrend in gold stocks continued when Cumulative Net Cash Flow was 150 and below. The current reading is 129.01 and therefore in general the current rally in gold stocks should continue. When the Cumulative Net Cash reaches above 225 will be a clue to start looking for the next high. Trend remains up. GDXJ should outperform GDX on the rally phases. Long MNEAF 2.80 on 3/3/11. Long on US Silver (ussif) at .62 on 2/17/11. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Long DNN on 12/17/10 at 3.20. Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10. Long CXZ at 1.52 on 12/14/10. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10. Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We long KGC on average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!
Be Lucky, Chichi2
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