The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (03/02/11) TY George
* Wednesday, March 2, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: back to neutral.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
The weekly chart above shows stock in the SPX above it’s 50 day moving average. The SPX has moved higher since October but stocks above its moving average has gradually decreased and shows leadership is weakening. Right now there are 61.8% stocks above their moving average. This chart shows a gradually weakening of the uptrend and a bearish intermediate term sign.
Above is a shorter term picture. Three out of 5 days the tick readings exceed -500 imply market is entering into a low of which happen going into last Thursday’s low. Last Thursday’s low had high volume and a lot of the time a high volume low is tested. Today’s trading did not touch last Thursday’s low so the jury is still out. Yesterday did produce a TRIN close of 2.58 which is bullish but more reliable signals are generated when it closes above 3.00. However it another 2.50 or higher reading comes in again as last Thursday’s low is tested then that would create a bullish signal also. The bottom window is the Chaikin Oscillator and readings below 50m are bullish. The short term picture leans on the bullish side and an ideal situation would be for a test of previous low with either < minus 500 tick close or 2.50 > TRIN close. We are back to neutral for now and let’s see if we get this setup. I might add that the mid Bollinger band is rising and suggests the short term trend is still up.
The above chart shows a bit of unusual occurrence; when the Rydex Precious metal fund moved higher then normally the Net Cash Flow will also move higher. Notice in the lower right hand corner that Cash flow has moved lower over the last couple of days with the Rydex Precious metals moving higher. We take this as a bullish sign sentiment wise and would conclude that gold stocks in general will move higher. When Net Cash Flow reaches near 225 will be the time to watch for a potential ending of the rally. GDXJ should outperform GDX on the next rally phase. Long on US Silver (ussif) at .62 on 2/17/11. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Long DNN on 12/17/10 at 3.20. Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10. Long CXZ at 1.52 on 12/14/10. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. We are long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10. Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We long KGC on average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
* Wednesday, March 2, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: back to neutral.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
The weekly chart above shows stock in the SPX above it’s 50 day moving average. The SPX has moved higher since October but stocks above its moving average has gradually decreased and shows leadership is weakening. Right now there are 61.8% stocks above their moving average. This chart shows a gradually weakening of the uptrend and a bearish intermediate term sign.
Above is a shorter term picture. Three out of 5 days the tick readings exceed -500 imply market is entering into a low of which happen going into last Thursday’s low. Last Thursday’s low had high volume and a lot of the time a high volume low is tested. Today’s trading did not touch last Thursday’s low so the jury is still out. Yesterday did produce a TRIN close of 2.58 which is bullish but more reliable signals are generated when it closes above 3.00. However it another 2.50 or higher reading comes in again as last Thursday’s low is tested then that would create a bullish signal also. The bottom window is the Chaikin Oscillator and readings below 50m are bullish. The short term picture leans on the bullish side and an ideal situation would be for a test of previous low with either < minus 500 tick close or 2.50 > TRIN close. We are back to neutral for now and let’s see if we get this setup. I might add that the mid Bollinger band is rising and suggests the short term trend is still up.
The above chart shows a bit of unusual occurrence; when the Rydex Precious metal fund moved higher then normally the Net Cash Flow will also move higher. Notice in the lower right hand corner that Cash flow has moved lower over the last couple of days with the Rydex Precious metals moving higher. We take this as a bullish sign sentiment wise and would conclude that gold stocks in general will move higher. When Net Cash Flow reaches near 225 will be the time to watch for a potential ending of the rally. GDXJ should outperform GDX on the next rally phase. Long on US Silver (ussif) at .62 on 2/17/11. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Long DNN on 12/17/10 at 3.20. Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10. Long CXZ at 1.52 on 12/14/10. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. We are long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10. Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We long KGC on average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!
Be Lucky, Chichi2
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