For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: neutral. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Above is a longer term perspective of the SPY. The SPY/TRIN ratio tracks up and down with the SPY and the mover average of this ratio give bullish and bearish crossovers. In general the TRIN is below 1.00 in an uptrend and above 1.00 in a downtrend and the SPY/TRIN ratio helps to identity this visually. As of today the longer term trend is still up. The top window is the MACD of the SPY/TRIN ratio and a crossover of its moving average would generate a sell signal and thus far it has not done that.
Above is a shorter term picture for the SPY. On Monday’s report we said, “The best signals for a bottom come when the there is a grouping of TRINS > 2.5 and Tick Close lower then -500.” Today the TRIN closed at 3.06 and the ticks closed at -850 which suggest the SPY is making a low here. It’s rare for the TRIN to reach above 3.00 and when it has a bottom was in the making. Sometimes the extreme downtick close and extreme TRIN readings lead the low for a day or two but in most cases the low in the SPY is very near where these two indicators reached their extremes. Today’s volume was high and suggests today’s low could be tested before the bottom is complete. The top window is the Put/Call ratio for the equities and the 5 day average above .65 have also lead to bottoms and the current reading is .78. Market is making a bottom near current levels and suggest another rally is about to start. We would like to see a test of today’s low on lighter volume and that would complete the bullish signal.
A three year Neckline which is major support comes in near 54 and the Major uptrend line( two year old) which is also major support comes in near 55, so downside may be limited to 54, 55 range. The GDX/GLD ratio has been supporting GDX near .41 and that ratio is there now. Cumulative Net Cash flow for the Rydex Precious metals fund came in at 1.25.57 today, reading below 150 have been bullish for the market. The pattern that may be forming since December could be a Head and Shoulders bottom where the Right Shoulder is forming now. GDX is at support and trend remains up. The GDXJ should outperform GDX on the rally phases. Sold CGR at 2.18 on 3/10/11= gain 75%. Long CGR at 1.24 on 5/11/09. Long MNEAF 2.80 on 3/3/11. Long on US Silver (ussif) at .62 on 2/17/11. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. Sold DNN 3/15/11 at 2.25 29.6% loss; Long DNN on 12/17/10 at 3.20. Gold ETF GLD long at 134.43 on 12/17/10. Sold CXZ on 3/16/11 at 1.15 for 24% loss; Long CXZ at 1.52 on 12/14/10. Sold AVARF on 12/13/10 at 4.06 for 61.1% gain; Long AVARF at 2.52 on 4/26/10. long MFN at 9.83 on 11/11/10. Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Sold RDNAF at .57 on 1/19/11 for 27% gain; Long RDNAF at .45 on 10/29/10. Long IROG at .52 on 5/10/10. Long PMU at .20 on 4/6/10. We will hold as our core position in NXG, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long KRY at 1.82 on 2/5/08. We long KGC on average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
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