A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[Conrad]

That Gummy Stuff is interesting fun to play with but as yet I do not see the relevance of prices that are obtained from a random number generator that theoretically already balances out 50-50 in the long run. That with aim one can make money with the random number game is clear because the buying occurs at low prices and the skewing that results from that makes the profit. . .the main idea about AIM.

When you start a real portfolio one can see at once what the current price of the stock is in relation to the trading range max. and min. So this history from the past is already the most elementary clue that can be used to set the ER to one’s advantage away from the 50-50 midpoint. That alone will give enough information that statistically will favour one CER above the other, for starting an AIM.

With The Random Number there is no relation to real investing data and the "universe" around it. This is the same thing as if an isolated investor is cut of from the market information and has no idea what the process are. All he has is a price of a stock about he knows absolutely nothing and he is asked to start an AIM Portfolio. In that case he would not even have any information if his 10% SAFE has any meaning and the 50 % PC increase is then also not a Holy Number. He could just as well use a SAFE of 25 % and a PC-Update of 40%. . .for all I know from reading about AIM over the years the 50% PC update is rather arbitrary and is not proven to be the best value.. .and of course the interest rate on the Cash is relevant as well and the isolated investor would not be able to take that in consideration. High interest rate would automatically favour a higher Starting CER on top of what would have been decided on by other factors. . one can convince himself on that by setting the interest rate in the AIM Model at 100 % . . .one is then well advised not to buy any shares at al by setting the Starting CER= 100/0. . . not a share will ever be bought and the capital increase in value by more that 100% each years due to some compounding!

I am spending too much time on this as it is so I will start winding up this discussion. And leave the issue as far as I am concerned on the side of the conclusion that skilful selection of the Starting CERs for AIMing will be better than blindly setting at 50-5 for all new AIMs