A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[Conrad]

Well said NotFuzzy

I would do it mostly like you do it too. What apparently has gone supernova in this discussion is the difference between what people normally and feel comfortable with and a scientific(or legal) aspect of what they might best do in a specific instance.

Most people know that they ought not drive faster than the stated speed limit on highways and roads, or they know they ought o pay income tax. . .on the other hand there is the reality of what people do. . .and what they believe they can get away with or take the consequences of not doing what they ought to do.

So theoretical case of what ought to be done becomes irrelevant if one is to respond in some way to what is HAPPENING in the Field.

What I am essentially doing is to try to "capture" the result of human behaviour from the stock prices because from part of that the prices develop. That is something different than stating before an experiment what the outcome will be.

It is quite legitimate to propose a mechanism by which the experiment might be driven and then test it for verification of the model mechanism, and even if there is no clue as to its mechanism we can still verify that the outcome of a new experiment will be between a certain limit based on a previous experiments.

My question has still not be answered: considering the fickle nature of people and the fickle nature of nature. . .mmm. . . I like that one. . . The nature of fickle nature is Fickle. . . finally I got something no one can disagree with

Its obviously true that some investors have a much greater knowledge as to how the market ticks and considering that it will affect the outcome of the question as to the most efficient way any one person should start an new AIM. I have already demonstrated that at the onset one can use his knowledge to pick a starting CER that is statistically better than a 50/50 starting CER. The first Buy or Sell in accordance with where the price IS in relation to its average can make the difference for the next 10 years result. That difference comes from the skill in being able to make better choices and that skill will translate in better yields. So the question is not what an complete ignorant AIMer should use but the question is what HAPPENS in the market in which a lot of experts are working and possibly some of these are AIMers and on the other hand many investment schemes work very similar as AIMing does and that counts too in the issue: What should be the optimum Starting CER be for any one person when he starts a single new AIM account? I do not care what anyone around him would advice this person to do. It is not important what others would advise as they have no clue as to what this person knows about the market and the company he is going to invest in. So in reality it comes down to the sill of the investor in choosing the starting CER for his investment in the light of everything he knows.

If one considered that then what happens in the future will just like as it happened in the past the collective choices of all investors will in part be determined by skill and in part by irregular events. In this light I would from basics expect that this process will not have a pure mathematical basis will in reality be skewed.. . deformed and THAT is the interesting question in this search: In which way would nature manifests itself to deviate what people think is happening. . .my gut feeling is that if exhaustive testing would be carried out on Starting CERs for AIM that are actually being used for AIMing that it will be different that a 50-50 Ratio.