Baseball Chat

[Teamlasvegas]

FYI & FWIW
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -120
Bottom Line: This is why the Phillies went after Halladay. He was outdueled by Lincecum in Game 1, but I don't see it happening again tonight. This is also a spot where I believe Philly's postseason experience the last two years will come in handy. They won't hit the panic button with Doc on the hill this evening. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 when handing the ball to Halladay following a team loss in their previous game. For as good as Lincecum has been, it can't be ignored that his ERA is nearly a full run higher than Halladay's on the season. I'm getting behind the doctor in this big spot.

I cannot see the Phillies losing 3 straight games to the Giants. Give San Francisco credit for taking a 3-1 series lead, but I know this Phillies team has the firepower and the pitching to get right back in this series. They have it set up perfectly with Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels scheduled to go over their next 3 games, so with a win tonight they know coming back from this deficit is far from impossible. I like Hallday to go out and get the job done tonight as he continues his stellar season.

Halladay is a 21-game winner with a 2.43 ERA and 1.012 WHIP this season. He's 2-1 with a 1.44 ERA and 0.440 WHIP in his last 3 starts, and is not happy with the 2 home runs he gave up against the Giants in Game 1. There is no other pitcher in the game that is able to make adjustments like Halladay, and I expect him to make the necessary adjustments against the Giants hitters to shut them down tonight. The Phillies are 7-0 in Halladay's last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Philly is 22-7 in their last 29 road games overall. This team has invested too much into this season to go away quietly. Take the Phillies in Game 5 Thursday.

1 Unit on Phillies/Giants UNDER 6 Runs
When Halladay and Lincecum faced off in Game 1 we saw 7 total runs scored, but that was an aberration. Halladay enters with an ERA of 1.44 over his last 3 starts. Lincecum's ERA is 1.57 over his last 3. With the kind of stuff these guys have, I'm expecting a very low-scoring affair, similar to what we saw in the Game 3 matchup between Cain and Hamels when only 3 runs were scored. The Under is an impressive 14-4 in all Phillies’ games this season with a total of 7 or less. We have only seen 5.1 runs scored on average in these games. It is also worth noting that the Under is 7-0 in the Phillies' last 7 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Under is 14-5 in the Giants' last 19 home games and 5-0 in Lincecum's last 5 home starts. We’ll bet the Under in what should be a classic pitcher’s duel tonight.

The Key: Philly is 14-4 UNDER when the total is 7 or less this season, and we are only seeing 5.1 runs scored on average in these games. Because of the tendency of the public to take the 'Over', when odds makers go this low with the number, they are expecting a low-scoring affair. With Halladay and Lincecum, two of the NL's best, going toe-to-toe, I expect runs to be tough to come by tonight. Bet the Under.