NFL - King/Queen of the Hill Pool

[Teamlasvegas]

FYI - FWIW & OT

Yesterday 2W 1L
Record 2 - 1

2Days Bets

Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards
1. Pistons +5 1/2
2. Pistons/Wizards Under 200

3. L A Lakers +3 Over Spurs

4. Ohio State + 9 Over Purdue

5. Maryland +4 Over Wake Forest

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The Pistons were brutally embarrassed in Chicago last night and the public is siding with Washington because of it. Odds makers anticipated as much and have set themselves up for a payday by spotting the Pistons a couple extra points. Detroit has this game circled as the one where it can end its losing streak and now it has even more motivation to get it done after last night's results. The Wizards have been a terrible home favorite to back as they are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games in the role. Plus, they are only 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Lastly, plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 15-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take the points

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Reasons why the Lakers cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a blowout win by 15 points or more. This is a 30-8 ATS System hitting 78.9% over the last 5 seasons.

2.) After a brief hiccup with back-to-back losses to the Clippers and Blazers on the road, the Lakers got back on track with an 18-point throttling of the bucks. Look for L.A. to continue their success against the Spurs Tuesday. The Lakers are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with San Antonio. L.A. has their number. Bet the Lakers on the road.

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Ohio St?s 11-5 record doesn?t look too impressive at all, but the Buckeyes have a valid excuse for it. Their best player, Evan Turner, did not play in three of the five losses. Those three losses came by 8, 21, and 9 points. Turner played in two of the losses, a 3-point loss to North Carolina and Saturday?s 11-point loss at Minnesota. So despite having five losses, the Buckeyes were close in four of them with a shot to win all of them late.

Purdue enters tonight off their first loss of the season; a 7-point defeat at Wisconsin on Saturday. The Boilermakers were simply off their game as they only shot 30% (3-10) from three-point land and just 54.2% (13-24) from the free throw line. Those numbers at the free throw line are well below Purdue?s 73.1% seasonal average, and the misses cost them a shot at a win. And after suffering their first loss of the season, the players sometimes come out tight in their next game because they are over thinking and not just out there playing. And that usually allows the underdog to hang around longer in the game.

With Turner back in the lineup, Ohio St may be the most talented team in the Big 10 from top to bottom. But the Buckeyes are still learning how to play with one another after they had to learn to play without Turner while he was out. And that has caused this team to go 4-4 over their last 8 games and just 1-7 ATS in those eight games.

That, along with this quote from Turner, keeps this selection from being a bit stronger. "I think we're trying to get our mojo back," Turner said. "We haven't played together in like a month. We're just tying to get back together and find the offense we had before."

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Maryland is the better team here tonight so I'll take the generous amount of points with the Terps. This is a team that is scoring 80 ppg on 48.3% shooting against teams who surrender just 67.6 ppg and 41.8% shooting. Defensively this Terp team is tough too, allowing under 65 ppg on 37.3% shooting against teams who score 70 ppg and hit 42.5% of their shots.

Wake is a talented team as well, with a focus on defense. However, they do a better job of shutting down the outside shot, allowing just 24.7% from behind the arc. Maryland doesn't attempt a lot of outside shots, so this doesn't match up real well to the Demon Deacons defensive strength.

I see a close game tonight, and in close conference battles you have to like the points, especially when the favorite is hitting just 65% of their free throws. If Maryland needs to foul at the end of the game, Wake isn't going to pull away with that kind of percentage.

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1 Unit on Pistons/Wizards UNDER 199.5
Bottom Line: We have to take a shot at the Under here as plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (WASHINGTON)in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing 45.5-47.5% shooting, after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better, are 24-5 since 1996. The average posted total in these games is 195.2 points and the average score has combined to total just 183.8 points. We'll bet the Under for 1 Unit.

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New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
Take the Over 42, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and there is a huge mismatch in this game with the Chargers receivers and the Jets corner-backs which will allow for big plays to be made. Yes the Jets defense has been tremendous this season but then they have not faced an offense as good as the Chargers. The Chargers receivers are very talented and that is a big reason why they are averaging 293 passing yards per game this season. The Chargers are averaging 28.4 ppg overall this season and now they come into this game rested. The Jets have also turned it up offensively averaging 30 ppg over their last 3 games played. Four of the last five games between these two teams have gone over the posted total and the O/U is a perfect 4-0 for the Chargers in their last 4 games when favored at home. Take the Over as your Free NFL Playoff Play for Sunday.

Good Luck & Later, The Team.