4x......re: revs
first, I think we should clarify the different revenue stream, especially the terms "upgrades", maintenance and bundling.
I don't know what most mean with upgrades. Waves ETS is bundled on several OEMs and can be purchased separately, when not bundled, but IMO you don't have to upgrade a Dell version.
So there are bundling, sales and maintenance revenues.
Don't forget, that revenues from SEDs (about 7$ per drive coming from an OEM) are frm the BUNDLING revenue stream.
ERAS (server)seats and ETS (client)sales are the so called upgrades.
The maintenance contracts sold with the ERAS seats are recognized over a period of a year. (unfortunately like the sales, at this point in time)
IMO the recongnition of sales revenues will be recognized when the occur, if these sales increase and become a bigger number, while maintenance fees will always be recognized over a year.
So if we speak of bundling revenues, we have to realize that SED revenues from Dell are incorporated in this number.
So let me make my guess.
DELL bundling (incl. SEDs at 7$ per)
20M-24M (assuming the royalities remain at this levels)
ACER bundling
2M
Other future OEMs:
1M
Chip ESC:
1M
GOV:
1M
ERAS seats:
2.5M
Maintenance from ERAS:
400K
So my low end is about 28M in 2010 or about 10 cents earnings with a PE of 40 is about 4bucks in 2010.
Since the market is about 6 months early, I think we'll see 4 bucks in May.
Of course any surprise to the upside would be welcome!LOL
BR
ISPRO
