I posted this elsewhere last week hoping to elicit constructive critcism and other opinions. Pretty much feel on deaf ears. Any thoughts?
Revenue range for 2010
Assuming the world economic system remains standing and Dell, Acer, et al, do not tell Wave to go pound sand.
Dell bundling revenue $18M to $26M.
Acer bundling revenue $1M to $5.
So a ballpark total of $25 for both.
SED revenue $1.5 to $15. Wildly different projections since the adoption is just beginning and there is little evidence to support any revenue projections. I am assuming volume of 250K to 3M+, a complete guess, but my opinion is at least the lower number will be attained.
I believe chip royalties will range between $250K and $1M.
The DOD contract looks like an average of $100K per month so $1.2M
Sign-on-line a range of $250K to $1.5M. Who knows?.
So that results in revenue from the above of between $23M to $45M excluding upgrade revenue.
Upgrade revenue is a complete unknown. The trend indicates a minimum of around 100,000 seats at $60 or $6m. A million seats+ is $60M+. I'll just go with the $6M.
So I think a ball park number will be a minimum of around $30M up to $50M. Earnings per share would then range between $.10 and $.50, assuming operating expenses of $20M to $25M.
If my "fantasy" 1,000,000+ upgrade seats should occur and that revenue was recognized instead of deferred, theoretical earnings per share would exceed $1 per share.
I appreciate and look forward to insightful critiques.
