Some market thoughts from this last weeks Journal commentary:
The third alternative? You read speculation that the market is going to continue down to unthinkable levels, or that we are close to a bottom and the edge of another bull market. But what about a third alternative? One where we don't, or only marginally, break the September lows, but then start back up without breaking this years high? Imagine, rather than an over valued bull or even a fairly valued bear, a market that trades in a narrow range, for months or years. Teasing both the bulls and the bears in an ever rotating evolution of different stocks, moving from under valued and back in favor, to over valued and sold off, just as the last under valued group builds interest once again.
A market where the only people that know what CNBC's programming is, are those last surviving traders and mutual fund managers trading 401K plans, but the general public is beyond even being worried about the market, they are totally uninterested. Where the last person at the water cooler that mentioned the "stock market" felt ridiculed for bringing it up, as though he didn't know it was just a big scam, and the only way to have a chance is to stay in mutual funds and let the big boys play their game. And even that incident was months ago and faded in most peoples minds.
The economy will rise for months in strength then slump back cooling off as interest rates strangle a minor spike in inflation, only to be sparked back to life by some little blimp on the economic landscape. And unseen by most, the price to earnings of all companies will fall to single digits during those occasions that market has an un-news worthy dip.
And maybe after the majority of the public can't identify what the NASDAQ is, there will be a product, there will be a spark, there will be volume, and there will be a spike that will build a foundation of a great bull market....some years down the road.
Sam
