Savvy Trader Companion Thread

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio is getting close to going negative...be careful.

I'll be out of town for a few more days.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

I was able to get SSRatio updated on Friday and for that day the ratio rose 0.16 to -0.68 and then for tomorrow it rose another 0.18 to -0.50 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk remains HIGH. We could very easily turn positive this week.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio turned back up, but not enough to look like a bottom, gaining 0.04 to -1.09 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk remains HIGH.   Rising above -0.98 would appear to be a bottom. I'd go easy again today, but the turnaround stocks should be the place to find some plays that could last a day or two.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio, as one would expect, continued down, losing 0.38 to -0.98 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk remains HIGH.   With only one of each category today there isn't a lot to pick from. It might be best to remain in cash over the weekend.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio dropped hard on Wednesday, losing 0.39 to -0.60 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk remains HIGH.   You'd think I'd learn not to second guess the internals, once again it took a day like today to remind me just how well the SSRatio tracks the market. And, only one stock screened out to watch tomorrow, KROL, be sure it alerts before you consider buying it.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

It is hard for me to understand, but the SSRatio continues to show weakening market internals, losing 0.04 to -0.21 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk remains HIGH.  I'll remain cautious until I see an improvement, though I do like a couple of the potential breakouts on the list today. The breakouts yesterday were all winners. (EVOL, NTE, UIS)

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

No alerts today.

The SSRatio turned back down, which I must admit I was a little surprised since the stocks moving up were only marginally beat by the stocks moving down in volume. Nevertheless, a little warning flag goes up. This could set the stage for a positive ratio at better prices. So, on Monday, the Ratio lost 0.15 to -0.17 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk remains HIGH.  This is easily within a day of going positive so we'll just see if there is a follow up behind yesterday's selling.

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio is ever so close to being positive after gaining 0.10 to -0.02 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk remains HIGH.  However, With this position of the Ratio, and on a rise, I'll be buying what alerts today. I often prefer the turnaround stocks since they can be held longer, but none screened out for today.

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio turned up and made a bottom, yet wasn't strong enough to pull the Ratio above the zero line. Rising 0.14 to -0.12 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk remains HIGH.  At this point it would take a very bad day to keep the Ratio from going green next week, so it is hard not to be positive.

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio did drop into the negative on Monday, losing 0.28 to -0.20 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk remains HIGH. This puts us back in "lite mode", trade fewer shares with tighter stops. Hopefully we'll shift back up soon, but the internals decayed fast in this last round. And considering the Fed meeting tomorrow, and associated volatility, it might be a good day to sit out. Only one potential breakout screened out, but I'd still watch AVO, ENDP, FCX and LEXR from today.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Another two turnaround stocks alerted Friday, DHI and UTSI. FCX alerted a breakout at the close, it re-screened for Monday.

The SSRatio dropped so close to the zero line that it shifted the market risk. Dropping 0.32 to +0.08 favoring selling, the estimate of market risk rises to HIGH. The falling momentum was so powerful that it pulled the Ratio under despite a relatively positive day on Friday. I think another day of caution is advised, just to see how this plays out. The direction movement of the Ratio has done a good job of the markets short term move so I'm shy about second guessing it.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Two turnaround stocks alerted today, GLDN and URBN.

The SSRatio continued a relatively hard drop, losing 0.59 to +0.40 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk remains Low. Since we screened many more potential turnaround stocks one would think we are reaching a bottom. Another bad day and the Ratio could go negative.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Timber!! Down goes the SSRatio, tumbling 1.56 to +0.99 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk remains Low. Like I said, pick stocks very carefully until we see the Ratio on the rise again. I have to smile, one of the stocks that showed up on the potential turnaround scan is GLDN. After my last dance with this stock I can only place it on the watchlist with a warning, it often trades with a wide spread and can easily hit your stop on the bid while still having the ask above your buy price. I put it here, but keep in mind it is risky, and even if it alerts today, I'll look the other way. Course, maybe I should have waited until I screened it out in the first place before I touched it.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Several stocks alerted today, not all finished at their high however.  ASKJ, KOSP and SFA held-up the best.
 
The SSRatio had a hard fall on Tuesday, falling below the level of September 3, dropping 0.61 to +2.55 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk remains Low. I'd pick stocks very carefully until we see the Ratio on the rise again. Note that we have a position in NXTL, in the potential breakout list below, this is a stock we have kept on our main watchlist and liked the chart enough yesterday to pick up a position. 

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio had an insignificantly slight increase on Monday, rising 0.01 to +3.16 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk remains Low. I'd like to see the Ratio break the local high of 3.54, but the watchlist has been performing well. Two education services stocks made the turnaround scan, both stocks we are very familiar with.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Needless to say, the watchlist continues to do well.

The SSRatio rose again, climbing 0.27 to +3.54 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk remains Low. Even have a couple potential turnaround stocks to watch today.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Again there was several nice alerts, as one would expect.

The SSRatio made another strong jump Wednesday, rising 0.67 to +3.27 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk remains Low. This is the highest the Ratio has been in over 2 years.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

On Tuesday, the SSRatio made the strongest gain we have seen, shooting up 0.92 to +2.60 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk remains Low. With zero potential turnaround stocks screening out for tomorrow, I'd think we are short term over bought.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio rose strong again on Friday, up 0.32 to +1.68 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk remains Low. I noticed NCN, a potential breakout we had on Wednesday, alerted Thursday and exploded up on Friday, so it goes. I got in just in time Friday to sell a few positions into the rally.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Once again there was several alerts, FIC was the best out of today's group, most from yesterday continued on up today.

The SSRatio rose strong on Thursday, indicating very positive market internals. The Ratio jumped 0.33 to +1.36 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk remains Low. It is nice to see a stock go from a turn around to a potential breakout like FIC did, hopefully we'll start getting a few more of these. Everyone have a safe holiday.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Several more alerts today than yesterday, ANT, EXBD, KKD, GHVI, JBHT and MATK all alerted, SYK alerted but did close down.

The SSRatio broke its local high (made August 22 at +1.01) climbing 0.14 to +1.03 favoring buying, the estimate of market remains Low. I wasn't able to watch the market yesterday, but judging by the results of the list it should have been a day with some good plays and positions that should have a couple days of gain.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

With all the stocks we watched today (13), I had expected more to alert, especially with such a strong close. But, only two, ANT and UNH alerted, both potential turn around stocks.

The SSRatio climb ever so slightly 0.01 to +0.89 favoring buying, the estimate of market remains Low. The market reversal we saw by the close should get things off to a good open tomorrow.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

No alerts today, tomorrow should have some good ones after looking at the charts.

There seemed to be a volume decrease in both the up trending stocks and the down trending stocks, making for low values in the balance of the SSRatio. Which, slipped again, 0.09 to +0.88 favoring buying, the estimate of market remains Low. The 0.68 level remains the point at which I'd be very cautious if broken, and then be looking for a retest of the zero line. At least there is much more to watch tomorrow, with a healthy list of potential turnaround stocks.

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio slipped back with the indices on Friday, losing 0.04 to +0.97 favoring buying, the estimate of market remains Low. A drop below 0.68 would look like a short term top. The selling last Friday was as hard as we've seen in the last couple months, out of the eight stocks we watched only FDS and IMDC alerted. Not much screened out to look at tomorrow either.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

CUM was the only stock we had alert today.

The SSRatio launched well above the zero line one day after turning positive, rising 0.30 to +0.40 favoring buying, the estimate of market remains Low. Only one turnaround stock screened out, yet it is one that has earnings after the close, OSIS. Yet, lots of potential breakouts screened out.

[Sam "Raven"]

Alerts today included BLTI, CRL, UNA and URBN.

After a long 42 consecutive days of having the SSRatio negative, we finally broke back into positive territory gaining 0.17 to +0.10 favoring buying, the estimate of market risk drops to Low. For review, this means that there is more up trending stocks, moving up on above average volume, than down trending stocks, going down on above average volume. We could whipsaw over the next couple days, but as many have noted the Ratio is very stable and doesn't change direction easily. Unfortunately, or maybe not (guess we'll see), but there wasn't a lot of stocks that screened out for today. I'd keep yesterday's list with active alerts.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

HAR was the only alert Friday.

The SSRatio could easily go positive today, on Friday it rose 0.10 to -0.07 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." After 41 days in lite mode it is about time for a change.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

The SSRatio is within striking range of going positive after rising 0.13 to -0.17 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." The market internals have made a significant improvement this week, stay tuned. However, the thin pickings for turnaround stocks indicates we could use a little pull back. I was away from the computer screen today, but did take note that many of the stocks on the watchlist that didn't alert a yesterday, alerted today, for example; AMHC, LEXR, OVTI, KKD, WMAR and LEND.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Easy as pie, once again nice alerts; OVTI and LEXR were the best. I'm posting the entire commentary and watchlist for Wednesday so those recent onlookers can have a peek at the inside at http://www.savvy-trader.com

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

There were several nice alerts today, ASKJ, MATK, PKTR and TARO alerted turnaround plays; ARO, CAT and JWN alerted breakouts.

Though BONZ didn't alert, I'd carry that over for tomorrow.

The SSRatio made more lost ground on Monday, rising 0.07 to -0.53 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." There were several good plays yesterday, I'd expect much the same today, but with more volatility around the time of the Fed's statement.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

It now looks like the SSRatio has made a bottom, if only short term, by gaining 0.05 to -0.60 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." There are several turnaround stocks I favor, ASKJ, BONZ, CYTC and PKTR are four. Note that we have a position in both CYTC and PKTR.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Only one alert again today, EDMC.

The SSRatio gained a little ground on Thursday, rising a measly 0.02 to -0.65 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." In order for this to look like a turn around in the Ratio we will need to break -0.61.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Only one alert today, FAF.

The SSRatio lost 0.06 to -0.67 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." It will be interesting to see how it goes today since yesterday was a sucker rally. Overall, the case for an improving economy is being build data bit by data bit, which makes this drop in the markets a buying opportunity. Just when is the question? I know it gets old being in lite mode, and it looks like we're stuck here for awhile.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Three alerts today, all turnaround stocks; CYTC, DRL, FRE and WFMI.

With the SSRatio moving down, and the VIX (volatility index) moving up, it doesn't appear that the end of this correction is anytime soon. But, after the beating the market took yesterday, shorts might be a little too much risk for now. The SSRatio lost 0.11 to -0.61 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." Note that we have a position in PKTR, in the watchlist below.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

No alerts again today.

The SSRatio dropped a little more on Monday, losing 0.04 to -0.49 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." The market internals were weak, despite the gain in the DJIA. There was a surprising number of stocks that screened out for today, so there should be something to play long.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

IDPH, NSCN, AMI, ANSI, IMDC, UNTD and UOPX all alerted today.

The SSRatio was unchanged after Thursday, so it remains -0.37 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." We still need a strong day.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Not one of our watchlist stocks alerted today.

The momentum of improvement slowed a bit on Wednesday, but the SSRatio did impove gaining 0.02 to -0.37 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." At this point I think we'll need a very good day to keep heading for the green.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Alerts today included; AAII, LEND, RESP and OCR.

Despite the indices weakness, the markets internals continued to improve on Tuesday, as reflected in the SSRatio which gained 0.06 to -0.39 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." This is the proper market action to see that will give us a positive environment lasting for more than a few days. If you recall around the 10th of July we were looking to go positive and I commented that I hoped for a bit more backing and filling first, well now we have gotten that. Only one potential turnaround stock screened out for today, but lots of potential breakouts. This sometimes indicates a short term top, guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

The three breakouts that alerted on Friday, ATYT, MENT and USTR. continued upward today, it is a good thing since today we only had one alert, UAG.

The SSRatio continues to strengthen each day, gaining 0.13 to -0.45 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." Looks like we go easily go positive this week. 

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Only the three breakouts we watched alerted on Friday; ATYT, MENT and USTR.

The SSRatio improved some more last Friday, gaining 0.11 to -0.58 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." This basing is a good sign.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

KOMG, RE, ABT and RGS all alerted today.

The SSRatio turned up, and this time looks like a bottom gaining 0.11 to -0.83 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." This looks better than last time we saw an up-tick in the Ratio, so it should be playable, though market risk remains high as long as the Ratio is negative.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

CFC was the only alert today, pay attention to the market risk, I'm see more and more stops hit. 

The SSRatio headed back down on Monday, dropping 0.02 to -0.92 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." It doesn't look too good here, but, the ratio can easily turn positive in a few days if we get some strength in the markets internals.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

NTLI alerted a breakout on Friday and AHMH, HRB, LEND and RGLD all alerted turnarounds. 

The SSRatio turned back up a bit, but the estimate of market risk remains High. 

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

BEAS was the only alert today, and it gapped up lowing any profit one would have had. OVTI screened out again for tomorrow as a breakout.

The SSRatio continues down, dropping -0.21 to -0.71 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." What we have seen the last two days is a large volume moving out of the stocks that have made the best gains over the last couple months.

Three potential short screened out for tomorrow; ATMI, NEWP and TECD.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Only two alerts today, OVTI and VSEA.

The SSRatio headed down surprisingly hard, dropping -0.17 to -0.50 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." The indication is that the market's internals are still weak.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

It was easy shopping today, four out of eight of the potential turnaround stocks we watched were home builders, all made nice gains and the only other turnaround that alerted was an oil and gas company. We watched only five breakout stocks, all alerted, ADIC, DRL, HPQ, JBLU and ZRAN.

The SSRatio turned mildly up Monday, gaining +0.02 to -0.33 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." This is a good sign that the market might continue up from here. The Ratio is easily within a day or two of turning positive and the recent correction has added some needed skepticism. I have to admit, it being that the third quarter is often the weakest period of the year, I'll be surprised if we get a really good rally, but I've also learned not to second guess the SSRatio.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

I hope more than just a few folks keep their eye on SERO.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Only three alerts today, ATK, BUD and FDP. NCI and SERO are worth watching again. 

The SSRatio turned back down after Thursday's weak market, losing -0.16 to -0.31 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." Now we are getting the selling we were asking for. Be careful tomorrow.

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

ADIC alerted again, (it had screened out both days), the other alerts included FCN as a turnaround, and CSCO, HPQ, MERQ and QLGC as breakouts. 

The market internals continue to improve, yet, I'd still to see some backing and filling before the Ratio goes green. 

Sam

[Sam "Raven"]

Again, another day of easy pickens', and the past days picks continue to do well. Today had ADIC, COH and SRNA alert off the list, but there were many others we followed in the room.

The market internals continue to improve as the SSRatio gained another +0.33 to -0.35 favoring Selling, the estimate of market risk remains High. We remain in "lite mode." The Ratio could give the all clear signal over the next day or two, but I'd like to see some backing and filling first.

Sam