Julius...I will sometimes respond in a PM when the response is material/information that has already been posted. You inquired in your previous public post:
Posted by: Julius Erving Date: Friday, July 10, 2009 6:49:22 AM
In reply to: balance_builder who wrote msg# 5152 Post # of 5161
BB: what's with the $10,- statement from Offor, made via his Vice President of Corporate Development?
Pure bluff, and it did not work?
Now tell me: why (as in W-H-Y) would the carried SEO be in a hurry.
Why would he not wait for an eventual suprise in drilling results.
It does not make sense. He is rich already, and it won't cost him a penny waiting, since his bills will be paid for.
I responded privately:
Sent By: balance_builder To: Julius Erving Date:7/10/2009 7:08:17 AM
JE....you probably answered your own question with this line:
"Why would he not wait for an eventual suprise in drilling results."
That is part of the reason for finding an agreeable number to both the buyer and seller. Exactly what Gandur did as well. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Now here is my response to your inquiry about the 78%.
Where did the 78% chance of finding commercial oil come from? Commercial is the secret word here.... i.e....profitable to develop. Then sit back and ask yourself why the largest interest holder of the JDZ gave the nod of approval for Sinopecs offer BEFORE DRILLING?
Devon Energy thought they had a good chance of finding commercial oil in next door OPL 256 and turned 3 dry holes. It happens in this business and for a co that isn't diversified (ERHC) it could be devastating.
There IS risk present while this stock board wants to recognize it or not. That is what "THE GAP" is all about. Finding an agreeable number to both the buyer and seller prior to drilling that gives the buyer a cheaper than proven price and take the risk out of drilling for the seller. Kind of a "middle of the road" figure where both parties can brag about the great deal they made.
It is my opinion this is EXACTLY what Gandur did and I believe SEO will travel the same lane (and by all market indications/accounts/DD, this is very likely what is going to occur).
IMHO, the co's constant talk of growth was just that....talk....for the purpose of bluffing the buyer into raising the offer.
The NSAI value was posted just a few posts back. Oilphants post falls in the middle. Hmmmm....in the middle. Sounds fair.....but wasn't that the purpose of the NSAI report? Odd that Addax had a NSAI resport prepared too?
First the operatorship......then add interest. I fully expect Sinopec to bring in Petrobras and be a main player in the region. Nobody loses....even STP'ers who get their brother to develop their natural resource.
