My take on Oilphants departure. First, a recent collection of posts to help put it together. Gather this picture before reading the collection.
There were (notice past tense) two entities with deals on the table for ERHC. With Feltang alive and shares still to be issued....I have to believe one of the deals involve the Chinese. Based on Dow Jones recent articles, we know the Chinese are interested and in negotiations with Addax. That said, they are most likely in talks with ERHC as well.
The other side was probably XOM or CVX. With Oily mentioning in his goodbye post that ERHC will have no future in Nigeria's offshore.....that likely represents a US team and therefore US deal. Oilphants post of ERHC having no role in the strategic reserve also signifies to me that it was a US team.
Ok...here's some excerpts from his recent posts....with my conclusion (guess) as to what it means following:
4-22-09
1. "BB: Since ERHC is soon to be declared damaged goods and will have no future in offshore Nigeria my work here is done. It has been a pleasure.
Oilphant"
4-22-09
2. "Bad ERHC news tomorrow"
4-16-09
3. "ERHC: deal or have it taken away. ERHC will not have a connection to strategic reserves."
4-15-09
4. "manuel06: 90%+ of all ERHC shareholders would have made more in last 6 - 8 years had they invested elsewhere than riding it out for the coming stuff your pockets management deal."
4-14-09
5. "Fate of ERHC is in the hands of one shareholder and he is going to take the deal. A deal that no one is going to like."
4-10-09
6. "Problem is; none of you are going to like the fate of ERHC. That’s a fact, but you all know this already.Candy?
OJO"
3-24-09
7. "rogue minnow(ERHC) will not be swimming freely in the JDZ.
by DK & ACEO"
Note in #7 above his reference to ERHC being a "rogue minnow". That is a distaste that I view as ERHC not moving in the direction of oilphants interest. #6 above also points to that same direction...appearing that Oilphant new there was a likelihood that ERHC was not going to make a turn toward his stake in his deal.
In #5 above it appears that a 12'th hour deal was placed in front of SEO. A last dying plea to have ERHC make a move in Oilphants desired direction.
#4 above appears to be an appeal to ERHC shareholders not to trust ERHC management because it has not proved itself as being a good investment to its shareholders after many years of holding.
#3 above appears to me that the decision by SEO was close at hand. This post also indicates to me that the deal was a US related deal as it would be the US with an interest in a strategic reserve in the GOG (talked a minute amount previously on this board with Ibready). This post by Oilphant is basically saying...the deals there...take it or the offered deal is gone and will never return.
#2 above indicates to me that Oilphants deal was rejected and because his deal was his interest it's a bad deal to the rest of ERHC's shareholders.
#1 is sour grapes...if you don't do what I want, I'll take my bat and ball and go home. Deal rejected to get on board with Oilphants team which I "presume" to be a US deal based on his strategic reserve comment.
Conclusion (all IMHO): Two deals were on the table. Oilphant was part of one of the deals that were on ERHC's table. SEO went with the "other" deal and said deal is done....finished....agreed upon and thus Oilphants "work is done".
Interesting that rumors elsewhere (read: Mark) are indicating a leak and/or big news by Friday. It corresponds quite well with Oilphants departure. It appears to this weary shareholder that ERHC shareholders are about to learn of what has transpired in the recent days and give us a full view of our future.
Because of Oily's departure I continue to believe we will see a deal PRE-DRILLING and "THE GAP" has been narrowed to an agreement by both sides that we will learn of in the near term.
Out for the day....and I see it as being all good.
BB
AI
