Saturday, April 04, 2009 8:26:15 PM
I explained why I thought IDCC should go to a decision at the ITC in this post.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36619695
In your post, you seem to feel that the President would overturn an ITC ban. If you're right, then we would be screwed, as we would were we to not get a ban from the ITC. Those are the risks. I respect your opinion and it is valid. I would be crushed if IDCC did not get a ban and had to start the legal process from square one in DE. But I'm sick of IDCC putting up the good fight, then settling for far less then the company has indicated their IP is worth. If one always backs down, then everyone will take advantage of it.
I know there are going to be two camps on this. One that wants to stand up to the big bully, knowing that it will either be very good or very bad, but let's show that we believe in our patents and will fight for them. The other side is that if we settle, even for as little as $300 million over five years, it will support a higher price and really limit any downside risk. However it will not provide anywhere near what the company has projected and make future negotiations tougher with this as FRAND, thereby also limiting the upside. That is a reasonable position, and probably one I should support with my total investment in IDCC, but I've always had the philosophy that one should go with the decision that has the highest expected value, even if there is great risk.
This is just noise, as management is going to make the decision based on far more information than we have. Like you, I sincerely hope we get a good agreement with Nokia this year and get the rest signed up soon thereafter so that IDCC will provide us with some selling opportunities over the next year or two.
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