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Friday, June 11, 2004 12:30:54 PM
Settling with Nokia right now is smart business. The amount of wars that need to be fought are climbing and a settlement leaving the .4% forward going rate for 2G in tact makes sense.
1. Nokia 2G arbitration.
2. Nokia possible 3G arbitration.
3. Samsung 2G arbitration.
4. Ericsson 3G license.
5. Samsung 3G license
6. Siemans 3G update
7. LG 2G license.
8. LG 3G license.
9. Motorola 3G license.
10. LU products.
Everyone one of these major deals need to get done. All of these companies are now selling products in these categories without sending any money to IDCC. Points 1,2, and 3 are license disputes. Points 4 thru 9 are potential law suits with 10 being a current law suit.
We can high five the Sanyo deal all we want but these 10 items are what needs to get accomplished if this company is to attain fair valuation in the market. You just can't have NEC paying IDCC license money for WCDMA handsets they sell to Hutchinson and LG selling into NEC customer base and not paying a license.
Settlements can be creative. If it is done in a way that does not affect current paying licenses then do it. I don't want to see 3 to 4 years of court battles because everyone wants to go to the mat.
Nokia implemented a strategy which they hoped would strengthen their position at the bargaining table. If the win yesterday speeds up the process in getting a deal done this will be very positive for shareholders.
My concern is forward revenues and share price. Each one of the 10 items mentioned should be a revenue stream now. In each one of these 10 cases represents a forward revenue stream for IDCC. If the company is able to get all 10 things accomplished IDCC share price will rise permanently after each signing.
IMO, getting these items done starts right at number 1 with Nokia. If IDCC can get this done quickly, they can move on to 2 thru 10 and the share price will start to rise very rapidly.
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