A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[Conrad]

Hello All, and Bruce 4444

Say, some time ago I mentioned, as an aftermatch on the many discussions on chances of winning or loosing and yield optimization that I know of a game with a 50/50 chance with which you can structurally win over time.

Today I got some interesting information on of a Dutch website about just this type of game, bit a different one. The proposition is that with coin flipping there is a fundamental high chance of winning with a 50/50 probability of winning....(Heads or Tails Betting).

The idea is that is you have a limited amount of cash to gamble then not betting assures no loss-no win. If you bet all the money right in one bet you are certain to loose in the long run.

There appears to be an optimum amount that one should bet on a probability game(investing).

For the Coin flipping the investment should be:

Investment ={p-(1-p)/E}

P= probability of Heads or Tails = 0,5
E= is the Gain if you win the toss

This means that for each Gain that one specifies there is a certain optimum investment defined. Furthermore it also demonstrates that for a given probability of winning the Winnings are dependent on the investment...and this is the essence of my previous argument that investment awards are not primarily a result of taking risk but primarily is determined by yield optimization and risk avoidance.

It is a very interesting game that is available on the Dutch Website:

http://tradesims.com/mmgame.php

The owner of this site also refers to an English/US?? website on which investing os treated in the same way as a dice game. The site BRAINS is:

http://keplerweb.oeh.uni-linz.ac.at/trading/

and appears most interesting. The proposition here is that the Initial Entry Point is of little consequence to the End Result.

One of these day I am going to read that site!

Conrad

PS:

I have reacted to the questions of Bruce4444. My response was too long for this Board. I explained that my way Turbo Investing a perfect mechanism is for AIM-investors without cash.

That write-up is available via e-mail [e-mail] for all to read it.

Regards,
Conrad

Conrad