A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[Conrad]

AIM Testing-The Final Frontier

In order to test the Vortex AIM we had some discussions on doing this recently. To arrange this informally will likely be to time consuming to do, and possibly the Yield/Effort Ratio will be low.

So, I propose a simple test:

I provide a simple "stock" history for 85 weeks and anyone can
let his system take a go on it. I only have a few simple rules in order to be able to compare performance on the basis structure:

1) Capital: 20 000 Dollars or Rupies...whatever;

2) Start-out cash at 50% exactly;

3) Trading cost: 20 Fixed Cost + 0,6 % of Trade Quantity;

4) The cash reserve may not be negative at any time. How you prevent this is your choice...You could implement a Buy lower than the calculated Buy Order and than inhibit buys until there is again cash avaialable;

5 No Intermediate Parameter Tuning. That simply means that the Test AIM should not have auto-tuning features.
For example, if you set out with a Buy/Sell Multiplier(Beta Factor as used by Automatic Investor) of 0,3 then this factor must remain 0,3 for the whole run of 85 weeks. Adjusting parameters in mid-stream is cheating...(for this test only!);

6 It is allowed to Optimize your AIM by trying out different parameter settings and to run the system as often as you like to get the maximum Return On Investment. This is not possible with real stocks, but this is a Model Test. It will provide a comparison for AIM System operation. It is clear that this optimization might result in inferior performance for a different share price history. That's OK. The idea here is that if you think that a Buy/Sell Multiplier of 0,6 is better than 0,3 then you run it again with 0,6. As simple as that.

Here follows the share history:

Week	Share	 Port.	PVort.. Week    Share   Port.	PVort. 
 No.	Price	Value	Value.   Nr.   Value	Value   Value 
 1	$100			53	72		 
 2	$109			54	69		 
 3	118			55	71		 
 4	129			56	74		 
 5	134			57	69		 
 6	115			58	71		 
 7	115			59	70		 
 8	120			60	75		 
 9	118			61	80		 
 10	112			62	80		 
 11	100			63	79		 
 12	90			64	84		 
 13	75			65	84		 
 14	70			66	88		 
 15	75			67	89		 
 16	78			68	95		 
 17	79			69	97		 
 18	81			70	94		 
 19	78			71	93		 
 20	89			72	95		 
 21	84			73	97		 
 22	87			74	103		 
 23	90			75	105		 
 24	95			76	109		 
 25	99			77	113		 
 26	104			78	115		 
 27	110			79	118		 
 28	113			80	113		 
 29	113			81	109		 
 30	111			82	110		 
 31	114			83	107		 
 32	115			84	105		 
 33	118			85	100              25 343		 
 34	115		 
 35	113		 
 36	111		 
 37	104		 
 38	100		 
 39	99		 
 40	95		 
 41	94		 
 42	91		 
 43	88		 
 44	86		 
 45	81		 
 46	86		 
 47	79		 
 48	75		 
 49	77		 
 50	77		 
 51	76		 
 52	73

The end run for de Vortex AIm resulted in a value of 25 343, or a yield 15,95 % on the 20 000 initial investment, using a 5% interest, compounded weekly.

Questions are of course permitted!

Conrad