Tuesday, October 23, 2007 12:07:21 PM
By definition, Peak Oil, is a topping out in oil production, not price. Oil supply will still be there, just much more expensive and difficult to extract. IMO the peak is still on the distant horizon, but wtihin my lifetime (I'm mid 50s)....
During this next phase of higher energy prices, coal and liquified (imported) natural gas will be exploited, but petroleum will still be the mainstay. Biofuels will add to the supply, but in relatively small quantity. Diesel fuel will become more prominent as light crude supply has already peaked.
Electricity generation will have a larger percentage of renewable generation, especially wind, but coal and natural gas will (must) remain as the base fuel for a long while as there isn't any realistic alternative.
Efficiency will become much more important. It's not glamorous and often invisible, but prices will drive consumers in that direction. Advanced building desings will bring zero energy use homes and commercial buildings to the marketplace.
The long term future is in PV, supplemented by conventional power generation. My grand children will see PV at prices that make PV affordable for home and industrial sites and in time, hydrogen production for transportation will be affordable --- I hope. All my humble opinions.
For what it's worth, my profession is energy efficinecy and renewables.
dat
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