Tryoty,
Walldog’s gloom and doom scenario does not completely hold water. While I am not mitigating the seriousness of the earth’s energy situation, here is why I think Walldog is off the mark:
Worldwide reserves are always stated as to the economics associated with producing them. At $40/Bbbl the estimated worldwide reserves are different than what they are at $80/Bbl.
Case in point: during my father’s last few career years with a major in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, he worked on developing a field just east of the Sadlerochit field. Unlike the Sadlerochit which is generally at a depth of about 10,000 feet and has a reservoir temperature of 225 degrees Fahrenheit, this field is just below the permafrost (approx 3,000 feet) and has a temperature of around 34 degrees Fahrenheit. The recoverable reserves of this field at that time were estimated to be more than 20 Billion barrels. But at 10, 20, 30 or $40 a barrel it was not economic to go after them. To produce this field you would have to drill thousands of shallow wells develop a huge gathering system and overlay all of that with an enormous steam injection plant. We are talking huge capital outlay. At $80 to $100 a barrel maybe this oil becomes economic and can then be counted in the world reserves.
There are literally hundreds of fields like this one all over the world. Another case in point are the Canadian Tar sands. They are estimated to hold over 200 billion barrels of oil. But it costs a lot of money to get this oil out of the ground and to then strip the hydrocarbons from the trash.
My point here is that, in one way Walldog is correct all the easy oil is gone, but in another way any experienced geologist or Pet Eng will tell you there is still quite a bit of oil out there but it is getting harder and more costly to get to it.
So what does this mean, Oil will never be in the 20 or 30 dollar levels again. But we can go on producing $100/oil for quite some time. No Mad Max scenario’s that I can see.
