Risi,
you know how it works in Russia, tested many times - the last example “Prana”(?): small unknown recently created company beats Russian and World oil majors in multi-billion tender. The only question everyone asks: “Who is behind the “winner” – Rosneft or Gazprom?” Usually it doesn’t take much time to get an answer. Within a few weeks the “winner” starts “negotiations” with one of the Russian State oil giants about re-selling of the winning lot – with or without the “winner” itself.
We have discussed the history of NWOG birth many times. Euddoggwyn can write a dissertation about this. :) It was born with the mission and it will die when the mission is accomplished. IMO: In Middle East negotiations NWOG is just a proxy for one of the State majors. The future buyer is already behind NWOG… it’s just… nothing to buy yet. :) If and when the international deals start falling into NWOG’s pocket, we will hear about real winner. (IMO)
There is one fuzzy area in this clear future: multi-billion ME contracts will likely to be signed by “parent” company which will assign “operator’s functions” to NWOG Inc. Theoretically, “parent” could be taken over with or without “child”. In any case it will be very beneficial for NWOG Inc, but with quite different “trading” future. Looking at current activity (Saratov merger where both CJSC NWOG and NWOG Inc participate, and the partner is likely the branch of that “major”) I believe (hope) that NWOG Inc will be bought out at the same time (but in separate cash/stock tender). Rosneft is traded in London, Gazprom has US ADRs… we may find funny symbols like GZPFY.PK or OGZPY.PK on our accounts some time. :) In any case the value of "public" NWOG will be determined mostly by our domestic business - oil assets and production. That's why I am more excited about those pending Saratov deals (merger negotiations and SNG acquisition) than even Syria or Algeria.
This is all a pure speculation. Weekends are designed for speculations and dreams. :)
