This is my last response to you. You are dead to me after your recent antic on Reddit. You just couldn’t help but reveal yourself. You spent months cultivating a new ID and even changed your writing style. Only to reveal yourself because you are currently limited to one post per day here and your 2nd username lasted just a few days. I also wasn’t talking to you here, so you HAD to get my attention there. Took me 6 minutes to ban you and I’ll do it again.
As time goes on and we learn new details, you continually expose how little you really understand. You’ve raised a couple fair points over the last couple years, though. But you are worn out here. Maybe I am, too. I surely can’t wait to ‘retire’ from this.
You may be right…this could be a dead stock for a few months. It just moves with the market at this point. There needs to be new investors to meaningfully increase the share price. The vast majority of shares are held by retail shareholders who are not selling. Many of us see the continued progress that LWLG is making and are willing to ride as long as it takes.
Between now and the May meeting, we have a couple small events where we could find out some more encouraging nuggets of detail. LD Micro, the two Belgian meetings, PIC International, and a webinar with Andy B, Mark L, and NLM Photonics (honestly that’s what I am PUMPED for). I just wish LWLG was on that webinar because they are much further ahead of NLM in terms of device development and engineering and would have a more productive conversation on the commercialization of EOP modulators.
Anyway, LWLG has acknowledged that they are currently working with a global Tier 1 player amongst other types of possible customers. Maybe they’re dragging LWLG around a bit, but every day that passes is another day closer to that big PR we’ve all been dreaming of. It is coming.
“The Evidence” – this is just your opinion and much of it is misguided. A basic and mostly wrong interpretation.
1) “No transceiver demo”. The ‘transceiver partner’ and LWLG have been working together since 2022 as it was first revealed in the December 2022 shareholder letter. Of course after that reveal, I was excited and hoped we’d see a demo at OFC. Obviously that was ambitious thinking of me. You think it’s a negative that they haven’t finished a transceiver. I think it’s a positive that this company is still pulling LWLG and working with them. While I certainly discount Jim Marcelli’s comments and really don’t trust what he says…he did say this company is demanding all this reliability data because they’re ‘betting the farm’ on the technology. To me, it sounds like this company expects EOP modulators to be a success and due to their natural advantages over other options, they’ll be used in a meaningful way once ready.
“Whatever the demo was”…LOL see my first sentence in the second paragraph.
Lebby in no way said there are issues causing an impasse. He said they are continuing to build their reliability data and also a statistical model of the data. I have a really good hunch that my theory is correct that they are building a statistical model of data across multiple foundry runs. Yes the question of “when is enough, enough?” is valid.
Again, for $795 you can read about the industry standard reliability requirements. It is not hundreds of tests. For scalability, it’s really not complicated either. Can they mass produce these devices cost effectively? Succeeding with wafer scale poling and being able to process THOUSANDS at a time on industry-standard 200mm wafers is all you need to know about scalability. Again..yes, the question of yield is critical to answer here.
2) “Demo at the ASM announcement”. I’m happy that management is taking the time to thoroughly explain its technology to interested shareholders and show off its new lab space which cost millions upon millions of dollars. Thank you, LWLG management. You can be damned sure that many of us will be pestering the hell out of the company with questions. In the Q&A and during the tour…
3) “Demos over the next 6 months”. I think this is great. Keep generating interest in the technology. They clearly have confidence in the technology at this point to show it off to whoever. You saying he said this to reset shareholder expectations is purely just your opinion. You also have no clue what kind of demos will be shown.
Moving on…
1) “The 10k says they are still developing the tech in house for 200Gpbs”. My response – see the first sentence of my second paragraph above. You clearly don’t understand that LWLG designs the modulator (with their PDK and the foundry’s)…and then submits their designs to the foundry who then creates the wafers with the modulators BASED ON those designs. So, we just received confirmation by a foundry (via LWLG) that the designs are working. Yay.
2) I received confirmation by the company that both statements were accurate. Several foundries “ARE” versus “PLANNING TO”. Same difference! Oh and guess what…look at the picture of the 200mm wafer and you can even see the multi-channel modulator PICs!
Again…see the first sentence in my second paragraph above. You say “likely haven’t even created any successful modulators for 200Gbps anywhere other than in their own lab”. LOLLLLLLL Also see #1…These devices come from the foundry!
Oh…and I’ve seen confirmation by an independent industry insider that there was in fact a private, live demo of these modulators at OFC.
3) “He never said it was ready”. Sure, yields are a question here. But if Lebby wasn’t even willing to tell an audience at a technical conference how they’re doing wafer scale poling by the thousands…you really think they’ll put a PR out on it?! That’s not an 8k or PR event. I’ll be sure to ask the engineers about the yields.
Your last couple sentences in this section. Again…see the first sentence in my second paragraph, and #1…
To conclude…
Yes I think it’s just possible that their communication is so bad. MZ sucks.
Again, here you go saying reliability and scalability are issues. They are CHALLENGES. There is a stark difference between an issue and a challenge. The data we’ve seen on reliability continues to look excellent…no issues there.
I see nothing but progress.
