When people ask about the share price after UK approval I don't believe that it's possible to say what it may be over time. Certainly at first just approval itself should be worthy of well into dollars. In time it would become dependent on earnings from DCVax-L sales. If the capacity to make DCVax-L was unlimited, and the UK was the only place it was approved, cancer patients from all over the world might be coming to the UK for treatment, even if it wasn't subsidized in any way, unless they were a UK citizen. That won't be the case, but if it were, in the UK alone the sales could generate billions in earnings. I don't know that even if fully built out that Sawston can make that much vaccine with manual production.
Ultimately earnings, and earning potential, will have the greatest influence on NWBO's share price. I think we should assume that NWBO's outstanding shares will go to 1.5 billion or more, so let's say they're 1.5 billion. If earnings are clearly growing each quarter, a P/E of 30 would certainly be justified. For every $1 billion in earnings a market cap of $30 billion would be warranted. With 1.5 billion shares outstanding that's $20 for every billion earned.
Such earnings won't come instantly, and I don't believe that we'll be limited to the UK for very long, but in time I believe we'll be speaking about many billions a year in earnings on GBM alone, if tumor agnostic label comes in, move the decimal point a couple to the right. Triple and quadruple digit share prices would become possible, if NWBO hasn't been bought out before then.
This won't happen in 2024, or 2025, but perhaps by 2026 we're starting to see the sort of earnings that validate triple digit prices, if that turns out to be the case, it won't stop there. By 2026 it's very possible that we'll be looking at DCVax-Direct approaching approvals as well, that will take care of those with inoperable tumors who can't get DCVax-L. I would suspect that well before this happens we'll have at least on BP partner, and the money that partner pays NWBO will cover much of the expansion and trial costs NWBO must support to grow, which truly will turn most DCVax-L sales into true earnings. Who knows, we might be 3 billion shares outstanding by then, so at a P/E of 30 each billion would represent $10 in share price, but we'll be at or very near double digit billions in earnings by then.
Gary
