Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[10nisman]

Let's go back in time to last February and someone tells you that in Q4 2023 Daxxify dollar sales didn't grow QoQ, bringing in a bit over $20m during the seasonally strongest quarter of the year. The stock price is down 80+% and needs to rise 7x just to match its highs. Any material free cash flow to equity is a 2029 story. THAT is the 'sky is falling' scenario. Daxxify has been a flop and RVNC couldn't afford one.

Let's cut to the chase. The share price is down as the Daxxify aesthetics launch and guidance has been less than the market anticipated. Comparing today's share price to the highs last January 2023 is beyond comical but that's what average investors do... Is today's price correct or was the high last January incorrect? Most of us would agree both are/were wrong and I feel bad for those who bought the highs. With respect to your cash flow to equity, nobody trying to ramp a business with significant growth potential is focused on cash flow to equity, nor should they be. Your previous sky-is-falling post essentially talked about RVNC not generating free cash flows to pay off its principal debt / convertibles... Free cash flow doesn't need to pay off the principal debt balance (i.e., debt gets rolled everyday in this world). Foley's mission is to ramp sales over the next 18-24 months, and package the company for sale. Everyone can do math and come up with their own estimate of EV in 2026, back out debt to arrive at what equity might be worth in a take-out scenario.

I believe you once mentioned you expect Daxxify to get a 40% market share in CD and 15% in off label which which would be worth around $250m in sales. My concern would be what happens if they miss that forecast by the same margin they're doing so now in Aesthetics. What gives you confidence that they will succeed after this run of strategic and operational failures?

First, Therapeutics and Aesthetics are night and day different. Second, the current share price isn't pricing in Dew's expectations (actually nothing in the ball-park). Third, understanding the risks of all investments is important, however, your posts seem to say you're way over your ski's (cannot handle risk) and you should be invested in some steady-eddy investments. If you cannot handle the volatility / risks, or if you don't have the confidence in the Company's ability to execute / drive shareholder value over the next 18-24 months ---- sell and invest in something else. It's that simple.

IMO, Foley will make a sizable ($500k+) open-market purchase after RVNC fully releases earnings.