Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[valiano]

I appreciate your reply Dew, you are right of course on the points you mention. Margins should gradually move higher and RVNC should get milestone payments. My post wasn't meant to be an exhaustive model - e.g. I didn't include the 25m of annual interest payments to Athyrium or any taxes.

However I would push back on you assertion that it is a 'sky is falling' scenario. Although it's not my base case, assuming a 25% annualized top line growth from 2024-2026 (assuming they beat this year's guidance by 15%) is not a stretch for a drug that's been on the market for over two years at that point (and fillers will be a mature business by then).

Let's go back in time to last February and someone tells you that in Q4 2023 Daxxify dollar sales didn't grow QoQ, bringing in a bit over $20m during the seasonally strongest quarter of the year. The stock price is down 80+% and needs to rise 7x just to match its highs. Any material free cash flow to equity is a 2029 story. THAT is the 'sky is falling' scenario. Daxxify has been a flop and RVNC couldn't afford one.

I believe you once mentioned you expect Daxxify to get a 40% market share in CD and 15% in off label which which would be worth around $250m in sales. My concern would be what happens if they miss that forecast by the same margin they're doing so now in Aesthetics. What gives you confidence that they will succeed after this run of strategic and operational failures?