The main two reasons I am buying the Jan 19, 2024 calls is:
1) I think the shorts will be hitting the Jan 19, 2024 calls to help cover, especially on the short squeeze that I think is coming. The shorts have held out covering too long and will be in a serious predicament with potential huge losses if a significant number of the Alzheimer patients on high dose 50mg show improvement over the base line IMO.
The Dec PR said that the combined 30mg and 50mg met the end point, just think what the 50mg data will look like when separated from the low dose 30mg. If you believe that the PR where Anavex says they met all primary and secondary end points, then you also know the shorts have painted themselves in a corner with no easy escape after the full TLD is released. I have no doubt that the full TLD will be released this year. Shorts will be all over the Jan 18, 2024 calls to help cover IMO.
Rett approval before Jan 19, 2024 will blow the shorts up if it happens before then. There is plenty of time between now and Jan 19, 2024 for that to happen since they are already on FDA 'Fast Track' and the awaited pediatric 'Excellent' trial has just finished up. TLD for Rett Excellent will be next and could potentially force shorts to cover as the SP likely breaks out on that news.
2) I don't like any of the short term calls because that don't give enough time for the SP to appreciate on good news PRs. I am buying the Jan 19, 2024 calls because that gives plenty of time for the full TLD to be released showing all end points were met, and showing the results of the 50mg high dose cohort. Also IMO Rett may be approved before the calls expire as a bonus lifting in the SP on top of the release of the AD TLD coming this year IMO.
Options are always a risk and why I'm going with a longer time before expiration. This is not a recommendation for you to buy options; do your own DD before buying options; make the decision yours. I am just giving reasons why I am buying the Jan 19, 2024 call options.
