Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[SPIN]

"So is NSM."

they are?

have been looking for confirmation of NSM deployment (they announced in March that SafeKeepers would be available in May). shute, could you kindly direct me to an NSM confirmation of PC2100s shipped?

There was no indication of NSM shipping in last 10Q or CC & the SKS e-mail provided by Kevin only noted INTC.

be, yes wavx is in a downtrend on seriously decreasing volume. there is a "chicken little" syndrome that is the residue of overly optimistic PRs past.

having been a hard core skeptic over the years has perhaps caused me to discount the fact that Wave was slowly moving the tech world towards a paradigm-shift & maybe the overly optimistic PRs were symptomatic of that effort to dramatically change the way people thought about computing security.

nevertheless, IMO the "street" wants to see some proof of the pudding under the crust. there were gobs of momo players who bought in the august fever & may not be happy w/the current price (leading to a slow sell-off?)

i wouldn't use insider buying as a gauge for price appreciation as Wave insiders don't buy the stock & have tons of options. i would, however, consider recent inst. buying as an indication that some view the wavx risk/reward as favorable for a long position.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/ownership/ownership.asp?Symbol=wavx

the top 3 (incl. Barclays & Vanguard) have increased their stakes substantially in last 2 Qs. most of the inst. buying hasn't been updated since 6/03 which might skew the overall activity to the negative a little IMO.

there is a UPC 1183 short restriction on wavx & around 4-4.5 mil shares out short (w/current volume avg around 0.5 mil/day).

trying to catch an absolute bottom can be tough w/wavx b/c the MMs play many games & you'll note a harsh spike down to $2.46 that few were able to buy.

the short-term risk IMO is that Wave has little in its Q3 #s to support the optimism expressed here (though maybe a move up in current liabilities that could show stuff shipping but not yet booked as revs, but i'm no acct.)

if Wave doesn't have much in their Q3 #s & CC to substantiate the deployment & subsequent revs, many naysayers will conclude that it's all smoke & mirrors... in that scenario (to play out on 11/13/03) would possibly result in a sell-off & more price erosion.

on the other hand, if some sales began to roll out in late Q3 (noting that eamonn says NSM is shipping & there may have been some INTC activity very late in the Q), AND if SKS (CEO) provides some visibility on sales trend in the CC, the bottom will be long gone.

there's definitely a short-term speculative risk & w/out any substantive news the stock will get cheaper IMO.

i was a "married to the stock" long in 99-2000 & lost (my own fault w/a "5 bagger" & didn't take any profits). didn't come back in until June 2003. traded the INTC/IBM news & came back in recently w/the hope of participating in a bounce from a positive Q3/CC.

Wave could be the "investment of a lifetime" but that remains to be seen... trying to catch a bottom might be tough (impossible?) if the news is good. And based on the reaction to good news in August, there is pent-up demand from sideliners waiting for some clarity on the magnitude of the TCG & Wave's role.

if it's a weak CC, it'll get short-term cheaper (& bashers will pound the no rev issue for months) IMO.

we'll all know *much* more in 5 days...

good luck!

SPIN

PS for some of the long time posters here, there's a bit of a "love/hate" thingy that shouldn't cloud your judgment too much <gg>