Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[willyw]

Thanks. I am just a layman with an interest and no credentials.
So my opinion, my hope, my whistling past the graveyard posts are no promise I'm right. Many here are way sharper than I.

RE: The Pardes data. I'm not sure I follow, but posting a link to the data would have made it more certain we were on the same page.
I'm no expert but in a trial with placebo I'm unsure you can compare that placebo arm to other trials or would want to. Further unsure what it would prove. Certainly there are more folks with antibodies (both vaccine and natural infection and both) now that when this started but I don't think that precludes being able to run trials that differentiate or show non-inferiority.
Somehow I think there are others or other pharmas that would agree. Unsure I'm following you- probably not.
I agree that it isn't 2021 anymore. That's germane, but it doesn't mean that compounds cannot be evaluated for safety and efficacy and compared to others like Paxlovid.

Now, it’s highly concerning that going into a top line (within 4 weeks!), they announce a “non-dilutive” fundraising event. Remember when they announced a new high risk RSV trial right before announcing a failed result on RSVP? (bold my emphasis ~W) Let’s please not forget this.

I think the day was coming for a number of reasons; burn rate due to a number of compounds, diminished HCV income due to covid, difficulty in running trials due to covid. Unlike you I think of it as a good thing, a wise thing. The presumption is if covid or other endeavors are sound it will be a good investment. If failure is all there is on the menu even then it may still be the correct choice. Obviously, I am optimistic about their chances.

Now..... As Ronald Reagan said; "There you go again". : )
And who said that the RSV trial was a failure? Not I.
You are concluding it was a failure simply because the "healthies" recovered at a rate similar to those administered ENTA's RSV drug. You seem to conclude then that *therefore* it cannot work on other groups of immuno compromised/suppressed groups (young, old, immuno compromised)
That is pretty similar to proposing that since most people recover from covid that no drug is needed since most healthies don't die and recover. The evidence though is Paxlovid prevented hospitalizations and deaths- just far less so in younger healthier people.

A sidebar is to this layman Paxlovid may simply be weak, a too high pill burden, inconvenient and with drug interactions. If it was a little stronger or was dosed longer there might be more defined results, fewer rebounds. I think the Shionogi may perform better (while remaining problematic). If the Enanta compound if more efficacious the results could be far more differentiated and could be used in prophylaxis or long covid. But I repeat myself.

Please keep in mind about 1 in 300 Americans died of covid; 1.11 million out of about 330 million. Every time I post that number it seems impossible. I cannot believe I have it right and keep looking at the 1.11 million dead against our population (332 million in 2021) and think I've made some grade school error and my decimal points are off a few places.Am I tripping? : )

There will be groups of people with Covid and with RSV who will need/benefit from an antiviral, IMHO. That's my bet, my opinion. We will see what the data brings us.
Believe me, I am certain of nothing.