Speaking of a triple digit AVXL stock price...
First of all, falconer, I would agree with the scenario you have laid out concerning the unfolding recognition of Anavex' value in the market over the next 18 months or so. I also concur with the the longer valuation parameters that you have laid out in prior posts, based on market size(s), drug pricing, etc.
Sometimes it is also useful to make relevant checks based upon industry transactions. I am rather surprised that no one here has cited the parallels in today's announcement that Pfizer was buying Biohaven (BHVN) for $11.6 billion. The primary asset in the deal is Biohaven's new migraine drug, Nurtec. The latter is part of the new class of migraine treatments known as CGRP. Nurtec went on the market as a treatment for acute migraines two years ago, and more recently has been approved for prevention of migraines. The market for migraines is projected to grow to the $10 billion to $12 billion range by 2030, and "analysts project the drug could have as much as $4 billion in sales" by then, according to the WSJ.
So, shifting back to Anavex, I would suggest that the global market for CNS treatments (i.e., Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, etc.) could easily be 2X that of migraine drugs by 2030. There are a number of CPRG competitors, although Nurtec seems to be distinguishing itself by being the only one approved for migraine prevention at this point. Anavex seems to stand alone with its Sigmaceptor Platform, and, like Nurtec, it is also aiming at disease prevention (in the case of Alzheimer's, at least). Those points suggest bigger shares and better margins.
If one doesn't believe the above arguments for higher valuation of AVXL vs BHVN, simply take the price paid the latter, $11.6 billion, and divide by the number of Anavex shares. Using 80 million shares yields $145 per share; using 100 million yields $116 per share. All this is just a way of saying that falconer's proposition that AVXL should be trading at a triple digit price by early 2024, assuming successful Phase 2b/3 AD results later this year and consequent FDA approval in 2023, is supported by the BHVN acquisition price.
