NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

The 1 piece of data that is perplexing is the 20% survival at 3 yrs for the 232 treated population, which I expected to be higher, given the previously reported blended 28%

There is no deep analysis needed. The blended population lived as long or longer than the treatment arm. In short, those who were randomized to placebo drew the lucky straw.

I agree on the surprise on the result against significant residual disease after NWBO disclosing tumor debulking was an important factor, but the difference between levels of resection can be dramatic and there is no quantification here. So this result is actually good news.

This is important, but you have to look at what it is saying.

For the MRD population (patients for whom most all tumor has been removed) DCVAx-L made little to no difference in OS. It was in patients for whom a significant amount of tumor was left where DCVax-L shined.

But, as you say, that is not a monolithic group. It has a broad range, The DC P3 trial had an inclusion criterion of "intent for near total resection". The ECA did not. The P3 will have almost all patients with little tumor left, even if over 2 cm^2 contrast it will not be a lot. The ECA will have patients with significantly more residue burden.

Extent of resection really matters. And "intent for near total" will leave less than partials.