Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[alm2]

Sleven kiwi
Whilst hypothetical debate is interesting surely none of us consider Amarin will vacate the USA market ? They may change their selling cost base as they continue USA GIA-as long as they are at least covering cost they will continue to sell- and let their infringement case play out - and rule 24/60 will also resolve
Possibly the sales will increase without additional cost investment - partnering or BO remain options
But abandonment ?? Other uses for the drug may /would assist the USA market
Rather than abandonment of USA what will be more likely on continued GIA is further market share reduction-generic wearing it down - hopefully the V they have via supply will just be moved to other places -EU etc over time
What is unlikely is further substantial increase investment to try and grow USA market - a big Pharma with big pockets might adopt a different approach - let their existing sales force work the sales - which is one of reasons why Pfizer/ Canada is so interesting - a short trial run may be in mind - if Pfizer think their team could double/ treble the USA market on a shirt trial run analysis of Canada - why not offer to partner or BO and have EU and Row to go at
Pfizer would be buying cheap compared with heady days of 26 SP
Will Amarin wait for infringement case to play out before considering BO - not in my view - they will certainly consider an offer if it came their way - they can’t rely on winning even though there are good prospects
But whether they would accept depends simply on how much
Equivalent to 10 dollars per share - ?? Low ball
15 - they would think seriously
20 would take it any day
SP needs creep up to support 15 or 20
Other uses - covid use only timely one ahead what for next couple of years
GIA is a slow run up over time - well run and managed 3/5 years from now - 15 to 20 sp
But Partner / BO/covid use / patent win infringement case could bring this up also
We need management to show metal KM early days yet
Alm