I'm of the belief that when TLD is released, and peer reviewed information follows shortly thereafter, emotion will have far more to do with how high the share price goes, rather than logic. A logical investor would look at how many shares are outstanding and ask themselves how great a market cap is warranted by the news. An emotional investor will simply say, I've got to get some of this, with the price going up they'll put in market orders driving the share price ever higher.
I can't say how high is up. I certainly think that high single digit to low double digits will be justified by the news, but that's not to say that emotion couldn't drive it to $25, $50 or more. Don't get me wrong, I believe the stock may be worth that much in time, just not immediately after TLD is released, or even after the Journal publication.
I would suspect that Dr. Liau, and perhaps a number of patients in the trial might get national media coverage. LP and others at the company may gain media attention as well.
It's been my intent to hold the bulk of my shares, but if emotion takes over and drives the price dramatically higher than I believe warranted, I certainly will rethink my intent. The opportunity to sell at something in excess of say $25 would be hard to pass up as long as I believed that after logic sets in I'll be able to purchase again at say $15 or less.
I wouldn't sell at $25 or any other fixed number, rather I'd put in trailing stop loss orders that I kept raising as the price moved up. If it went to $50, my stop loss might be at $45, if it went higher, so would my stop loss.
For those who remember that long, years ago an article on how Dr. Judah Folkman's technology could cure cancer in the NY Times sent a $1 stock to over $100. The article was based on curing mice, but that didn't matter, emotion took over and the share price went through the roof. I have no idea if TLD or the Journal will say a percentage of the patients are deemed to be cured, or if it will say they're in remission, but if we get the sort of media coverage that may be possible, no telling how high it may go.
I suspect that if the news is as good as we believe, we have someone who'll give us a shot at the kind of media coverage we'd like to see. His name is Cofer Black. I cannot say how he'll do it, but I suspect he knows the people who'll make it happen.
Gary
