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Saturday, July 03, 2021 12:47:57 PM
I was replying to a prediction of how far the COOP price would drop if more shares were issued to escrow holders.
I think that the 'fair value' of COOP will not materially change because I believe that any share issue to escrow holders will be essentially balanced by the assets 'acquired' from such a transaction.
I also believe that there will be a short term drop in COOP price (if shares are issued) as long term holders of escrows cash in. The sudden deluge of shares being sold will overwhelm buyers in the short term (or if you prefer, they will wait to see how cheaply they can acquire the shares.
In that context, my remarks were directed at how far the COOP price would drop. It, in and of itself, does not imply $18 per Q. For that to be the case, new shares in COOP would have to be distributed to escrow holders on a 1 for 1 basis. While there have been discussions about how such a share exchange might happen, I believe that ratio of share exchange will be highly dependent on the COOP share price at the time of the exchange, the value of the 'acquired' assets, and other factors having to do with the merger with NSM, KKRs investment, and possibly other events that have (or will) occur.
The $18.XX mentioned by AZ is totally separate from the $18 I mentioned. I do believe he is on the right track but that is a separate issue from this.
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