Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[couldbebetter]

Part II. AMRN has done a superb job of proving the health benefits of
a medication that rightly should have a market in the 10's of millions
of CVD patients. Longer term that narrative should still be valid except
that the pricing of Vascepa will likely begin at lower price levels than
anticipated which may also result in the uptake of Vascepa (especially in
areas like Canada and Europe)being faster than it otherwise would be
at initially higher prices.

If a BP that acquires AMRN can ultimately price Vascepa at (for example
only) at $80 per month net to the BP, that is $960 a year. Each one
million patients on the drug would bring in $960 million. At 10 million
patients that would be $9.6 billion in revenues! Value in market cap
to the BP would be around $40-$45 billion. Does that mean that AMRN
is worth that amount? No! BP would have to invest billions to both
maintain a massive amount of feed stock to thwart any major competition.
AMRN has established a beachhead (kind of like the Allied invasion of
Europe during WWII...and what a bloody mess that was!) but once the
Air Power was established (BP in this analogy) the war was ultimately
won (though victory shared with the USSR who was allowed control over
their area of influence.) Much like a BP may have to do with other
players. Bottom line: JT must sell AMRN to the "right" BP "Player."